Beyond Bagram Airbase

Carnegie Endowment members visiting India post the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan asserted that US troops would stay in Afghanistan for some 50 years because of Central Asia’s vast   mineral reserves and proximity to China. Later, large oil-gas reserves were found in America, which the POTUS Donald Trump has ordered to expand. The exit of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021 was more of a rout; leaving behind USD 7 billion worth of armament – was it deliberate to keep the region destabilized?

Trump has criticized this, saying, “We gave billions to Afghanistan, and yet we left behind all that equipment. This wouldn’t have happened if I were president. Can you believe it? They’re selling 777,000 rifles and 70,000 armoured trucks and 70,000 vehicles. We left all of it behind for them. We should get it back.”

The US-Taliban relations are warming up. But the US has been paying USD 40 million every week to the Taliban.  The Trump administration appears ready to help end Taliban’s international isolation (despite continued stone-age treatment of Afghan women) after the Taliban released George Glezmann (one of the seven American hostages) when Trump’s hostage envoy Adam Boehler visited Kabul, as part of a Qatar-brokered preliminary diplomatic talks, and received Glezmann detained since 2022.

Boehler was accompanied by Zalmay Khalilzad, US Special Representative for Afghanistan, Qatari officials and other US delegation members, who held talks with Taliban Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi and Taliban officials.

Immediately thereafter, the US lifted bounties from senior Haqqani Network members in Afghanistan; USD 10 million bounty on its leader Sirajuddin Haqqani (who is also the Taliban government's Interior Minister), his brother Abdul Aziz Haqqani and brother-in-law Yahya Haqqani. The Haqqani Network was behind some of the most high-profile and deadly attacks during the US troops in Afghanistan, including attacking the US and Indian embassies, as well as NATO forces.

Though denied by the Taliban, there is apparent internal struggle within their hierarchy. Justice Minister Abdul Hakim Haqqani, having   accused Taliban officials as thieves, traitors and corrupt, has gone to Dubai. Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Stanikzai has fled to the UAE after openly criticizing Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, particularly about women’s rights. This,  along with other incidents, indicate increasing tensions

Trump has declared his intention to return American forces to Afghanistan’s Bagram Airbase, claiming that “China now controls Bagram.” He explained the strategic value of the airbase being just an hour away from China’s nuclear facilities. China has denied any presence in Bagram and Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid dismissed these claims, saying, “They should avoid unsubstantiated statements. Bagram is controlled by the Islamic Emirate (Taliban regime), not China.” Built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s, the US expanded Bagram Air Base to about 30 sq km, accommodating 10,000 troops, plus a Guantanamo in Afghanistan with a detention centre for the CIA to undertake interrogations. Trump has described it as one of the biggest air bases in the world, with one of the most powerful runways.

H J Mackinder in his 1904 article ‘Geographical Pivot of History’, wrote, “Chinese might constitute the yellow peril to the world’s freedom, just because they would add an oceanic frontage to the resources of the great continent, an advantage as yet denied to the Russian tenant of the pivot region”. Trump may have multiple reasons to again deploy US troops in Afghanistan, like:

• Pentagon briefing Trump on war plans against China.
• Acknowledging China can wage war on multiple fronts – not just attacking Taiwan.
• Chinese interference in case of hostilities with Iran.  
• Afghanistan’s recoverable resources - copper, gold, oil, natural gas, uranium, bauxite, coal, iron ore, aluminium, rare earths, lithium, chromium, lead, zinc, gemstones, talc, sulphur, travertine, gypsum and marble; which the Taliban is unable to capitalize on.  
• Check China’s growing influence in Afghanistan and further US interests in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

In December 2011, Afghanistan signed a contract with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for development of three oil fields; giving Afghanistan the first oil refineries within the next three years, and thereafter receiving 70% of profits from sale of oil and natural gas. CNPC began Afghan oil production in October 2012, extracting 1.5 million barrels of oil annually. China is also undertaking copper mining in Afghanistan although security concerns have slowed operations.

In August 2018, Afghan embassy in Beijing said China is helping Afghanistan set up a mountain brigade in northern Afghanistan but there will be no Chinese military personnel in Afghanistan.  It also said the Afghan government appreciates China’s assistance and both militaries were working in close coordination (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2161745/china-building-training-camp-afghanistan-fight).

In August 2024, Afghanistan said construction of the Wakhan Corridor Road in Badakhshan will be completed before the winter season. Mohammad Yunus Akhundzadeh, MRRD’s acting minister said, “This road can be a trade way. This road starts from China to Afghanistan and passes through many countries. This is an important road.” He also said Afghanistan is negotiating with the World Bank to help complete 20,000 unfinished projects in the country (https://www.ariananews.af/construction-of-wakhan-road-between-afghanistan-china-to-be-completed-before-winter-mrrd/).

China has an embassy in Kabul while the US has been dealing with the Taliban through Qatar’s embassy in Kabul. India is in the process of letting the Taliban man Afghanistan’s embassy at New Delhi; the list of Taliban officials, including the ambassador, was given to Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri by Taliban Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on January 8, 2025. Opening of the Taliban embassy in New Delhi is expected simultaneous to the Indian embassy opening in Kabul.

Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia has exposed Qatar financing terrorists, including the Hezbollah (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10161402584210863&id=586255862&rdid=sNrMFF69Lbu1WjTH#). This is a small example of what Qatar is doing globally, Qatar’s financial help to Hamas also being on record. India should take note, having rolled out the red carpet for Sheikh Tamin Bin Hamad Al-Thani, while Qatar still holds an Indian Navy veteran on trumped up charges. There is no need to get overawed with Thani promising USD 100 billion investment in India – it will have costs.

The US and Israel would be aware of Qatar two-timing them, but that is how dirty wars are played – Qatar also helps the US deploy ‘proxies’ (terrorists). Things shouldn’t be taken on face value – like the Atlantic leak (obviously deliberate) and UNSG’s Special Envoy Julie Bishop meeting the junta in Naypyidaw while the US supports, supplies and trains (using former US marines) the Peoples’ Defence Force and the Chins in Myanmar. The US love-hate relationship with the Taliban will continue as the latter can hardly be expected to completely become an American mascot.  The Taliban has strongly condemned Saudi Arabia's interception of Yemeni missiles aimed at US and Israeli targets, calling it a betrayal of the Islamic Ummah, and saying the day will come when Saudi Arabia will pay for this betrayal.

Trump says the CIA was not behind the regime change in Bangladesh. Did the CIA affect this only through Pakistan’s ISI? Why was an FBI team in Dhaka within a week of the regime change? Why the kiss and hug reception to Mohammad Yunus visiting Washington thereafter? Bangladesh army chief Waker-Uz-Zaman has held discussions at the Pentagon. Lt Gen Joel Vowell, Deputy Commanding General of the US Indo-Pacific Command to Dhaka on March 24-25 and Tulsi Gabbard, Director US National Intelligence, said the threat of Islamic terrorists in Bangladesh is rooted in the ideology and objective of establishing an Islamic caliphate. Why can’t Bangladesh and Pakistan be sanctioned for fuelling radical Islam and sponsoring terrorism, unless subjecting India to terror suits America; making it lean more onto the US?

Taliban-affiliated AQIS and LeT suicide bombers are readying for ‘Mission Kashmir’ (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/reports/aqis-and-lashkar-suicide-bombers-prepping-for-mission-kashmir/). This may suit Trump’s opportunist Islamic terrorism policy (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/articles/donald-trump-and-islamic-terrorism/) to target Chinese nationals and Chinese interests, as would reports of  Al Qaeda, TTP, Afghan Taliban and other smaller outfits joining hands to bring Pakistan under Sharia. But after Pakistan, their target is India, with rabid calls for Ghazwa-e-Hind resonating in Bangladesh already. Does this suit Trump? If not, then Trump should heed Robert D Kaplan, who wrote in his book, “The Revenge of Geography” that pressure  on land can help the US thwart China at Sea. The better option is to support independence of Balochistan, cutting off China’s access to the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, notwithstanding the CIA-MI6-ISI nexus. Far too long the West has ignored persistent genocide of Balochis, not even a squeak when mass graves were discovered some years back. Donal Trump needs to correct this grave anomaly.   

India signed a deal with the US (during Biden’s presidency) for GE-414 aero-engines, but now the Trump administration is reportedly demanding 50% higher price. So, no tariff mercy should be expected from Trump. But does India realize how important defence exports and Indian markets have become to the US, with Europe shunning Washington? Even before India-US trade talks began, officials have called the industry to identify areas where US goods can be chosen over China. This is simultaneous to Indian diplomats doing the Dragon-Elephant dance – essentially to Beijing’s tune. The media blitz is that the border is being mutually resolved, whereas, India has submitted to China’s demand to keep the border issue “separate” from bilateral relations. After stabbing India, achieving what it wanted, and reinforcing its new locations in eastern Ladakh during 2020, there is no question of any PLA pullback. But plenty of news can be expected on resumption of border trade and the Mansarovar Yatra – at the time of Beijing’s choosing, which China has rescinded in the past.  

India is now raising a new Division to defend eastern Ladakh (https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2025/Mar/27/new-army-division-to-defend-eastern-ladakh); three decades after Indian Army demanded this, even before Pakistan’s 1999 Kargil Intrusions. This is India where the NSA has failed to define a National Security Strategy (NSS) despite being officially tasked to do so in 2019, and his CDS says a “written” NSS is not required? Finally, will India examine the caution required to deal with the Taliban?  

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.