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India-Afghanistan Talks in Dubai set off Alarms in Pakistan

Foreign Secy @VikramMisri met Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on Jan 8 2025. Photo: Randhir Jaiswal, MEA India
Foreign Secy @VikramMisri met Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on Jan 8 2025. Photo: Randhir Jaiswal, MEA India
Written by Aparna Rawal

Taliban’s recent talks with India on regional security and cooperation for the mutual development and growth leaves Pakistan aggravated due to its already failed diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, as it is expected to rake Kashmir and Khalistan issues against India and Human rights violations against Taliban in the UNSC

In recent statements made by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) foreign office, the Taliban has regarded India as a "significant regional and economic partner" post its meeting with the Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri on 8th January 2025 in Dubai.

The Taliban government stated that the talks with Delhi aimed at strengthening political and economic ties with India. Both nations have agreed to boost trade ties focusing predominantly on Chabahar Port in Iran, which would allow to bypass the ports of Karachi and Gwadar in Pakistan.

Additionally, New Delhi has also expressed its interest in engaging in development projects in Afghanistan. Regardless of India’s unrecognition of the Taliban government, India has tried to facilitate trade, medical and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan under the Taliban. Besides India, China and Russia have also shown their willingness to boost trade and investment in Afghanistan.

In 2021, after the fall of the Ghani led Afghan government and US exit from Kabul, India commenced an operation code named Devi Shakti (Operation Goddess Shakti) led by the Indian Armed Forces to evacuate Indian citizens and foreign nationals from Afghanistan. Recognizing the need for urgency, Indian government introduced a new category of 'e-Emergency X-Misc' visa for Afghans who wanted to travel to India. The e-Emergency X-Misc Visa is an electronic visa, valid for 6 months and is limited to only Afghan citizens. Though the visa restricts the appliers from working in India, it had served its purpose to make an exception on basis of security emergency for those fleeing Afghanistan and attempting to enter Indian territory.

Since then, India has hosted thousands of Afghan refugees. Thus in the recent talks, India has agreed to make provision for “material support” for the rehabilitation of Afghans back in their homeland.  Since 2023, over million refugees have been repatriated by Pakistan and Iran to Afghanistan under their refoulement policies. The plans for refoulement of the Afghans refugees by Pakistan culminated amidst the diplomatic strains between IEA and Pakistan.

Foreign Secy @VikramMisri met Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on Jan 8 2025. Photo: Randhir Jaiswal, MEA India
Foreign Secy @VikramMisri met Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on Jan 8 2025. Photo: Randhir Jaiswal, MEA India

In November 2022, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, called off the indefinite ceasefire, which was prior agreed on with the government of Pakistan, and later issued orders to its fighters to carry out attacks across Pakistan.

The outfit is reported to be aligned with the Afghan Taliban and had stated that Islamabad had not honoured the agreement and continued to face attacks from the Pakistani military, especially in Lakki Marwat district of Pakistan’s north-western province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The TTP has been waging a war against Pakistan for more than a decade and has demanded the implementation of stringent Shari law in Pakistan, release of its core members arrested by the government and the revoking of the merger of Pakistan’s tribal areas with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Facilitated by the Afghan Taliban, multiple rounds of talks were conducted between Pakistan and TTP but of no avail. After he break down in negotiations between the outfit and Pakistan, Lahore censured the Taliban government and accused the IEA of providing safe haven to anti Pakistan elements and for allowing them to orchestrate terror activities from the Afghan soil. Taliban denied the accusations and this foresaw the dematerialization of Pakistan’s hopes for strategic depth in Afghanistan utilizing the Haqqanis and Taliban to manipulate the evolving jihadist landscape in South Asia.

Additionally, the lack of recognition of the Durand line, which the Afghans have viewed as a product of British colonial regime in favour of Pakistan, without making a consideration of the majority Pashtun demographic, who identify as Afghans, continue to end in border skirmishes. There have been several clashes between the Afghan forces and Pakistan military forces around the Durand line. To exacerbate the already brewing mistrust between the two nations, a former commander from TTP in his article also disclosed Pakistan’s Kashmir tactic being employed on Afghanistan. He explained, like Kashmir, Afghanistan could expect Pakistan to push the Daesh or Isis Khorasan (ISKP) cadre across the Durand line in a cover of military fire on the pretext of countering cross border infiltration from Afghanistan.

ISKP is Taliban’s archrival, which seeks to utilize Afghanistan as a Launchpad for its jihadist plans. Since Taliban’s exit from the war theatre, the battle field appears to be vacant for ISKP to manipulate more freely while also recruiting the former cadres from Taliban who are unemployed or the recruits which once served the Ghani government as military officers or intelligence officers. Thus the Taliban carried a heavy crackdown on ISKP in Afghanistan and believe that Pakistan may have come to an agreement with the ISKP leadership to mutually benefit their own interest.

As means to balance Pakistan’s move, it is plausible that Taliban too may make use of its networks or outfits which have pledged allegiance to the latter. Given the scenario, Pakistan ordered the refoulement of several Afghans who had resided in Pakistan under the suspicion of being a threat to its internal security.

It is expected that New Delhi’s engagement with de facto Afghan leaders to make provisions for aid of the Afghans will ruffle with Pakistan.

Recently, the Pakistan military carried out airstrikes against the suspected TTP havens around Afghan border province. Taliban condemned the operation and claimed that nearly 50 “refugees” from Pakistan were killed in the strikes. However, the Pakistani officials anonymously confirmed it and also stated the death of dozen TTP commanders and operatives.

Rana Sanaullah, Special Assistant to the Pakistani Prime Minister on Political Affairs, has admonished Taliban and has stated the possibility of more cross-border operations in Afghanistan as part of its counterterrorism efforts if its security is compromised.

Responding to the attack on 24th December 2024, the Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson has also reacted to Pakistan’s military aggression against Afghanistan, stating “We unequivocally condemn any attack on innocent civilians. It is an old practice of Pakistan to blame its neighbours for its own internal failure”

India’s bold move to pragmatically engage with Taliban is visible in its efforts to counter its own pre-existing security threats rising from Pakistan’s cross border infiltrations into India, proxy wars, support for the anti India elements in conjunction with possible foreign jihadist fighters and its already prevalent Kashmir to Khalistan agenda to destabilize India. With the fall of pro India Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh and pro Pakistan elements in Bangladesh colluding with Pakistan to re establish Pakistani influence in the country, it is expected for India to retain control of its security measures to balance the possible threats arising from these latest developments.

India has already reported to have sent food, medicines, vaccines, pesticides, and emergency aid to Afghanistan. Apart from the promise of the humanitarian aid, the two nations have also discussed cooperation in cricket, security and the repatriation of Afghan refugees.

Taliban have sought a formal request for the issuance of Indian visas for a large contingent of Afghan students, patients and businessmen.

The request for visas comes due to the growing challenges of a strained healthcare system and exacerbated relations with Pakistan. Hence the Afghans are seeking India for medical treatment and trade opportunities.

The Indian Joint Secretary JP Singh, who is responsible for diplomatic relations with Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, met Muttaqi in March last year to discuss the port of Chabahar, where the Taliban have expressed to invest 35 million dollars.

At the moment, it can be anticipated that talks between the Taliban and India could yield profitable gains through their symbiotic relation. However, with Pakistan amping its efforts by securing the seat on the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee, which is responsible for designating individuals and groups as terrorists and imposing sanctions, it poses a doubt to what extent Pakistan would go to dissuade the international community in designating certain groups or vice versa (in case of Taliban or TTP). To top it all, India can expect Pakistan to rake up the Kashmir issue, as it always has, at the UNGA under the pretext of being a “strong voice for peoples under foreign occupation and oppression and for the realization of their right to self-determination,"- a narrative Pakistan continues to reiterate against India.

About the author

Aparna Rawal

Aparna Rawal is an independent research analyst and writer specializing in Af/Pak region and counter-terrorism. She was the former Editor-in-chief for Voice of Baloch. She possesses MA in International Relations and Diplomacy from Annamalai University, India.

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