Articles

Whither Bangladesh

World Bank country director Abdoulaye Seck meets Chief Adviser to the interim government Professor Muhammad Yunus at the State Guest House Jamuna in Dhaka on 17 September 2024
World Bank country director Abdoulaye Seck meets Chief Adviser to the interim government Professor Muhammad Yunus at the State Guest House Jamuna in Dhaka on 17 September 2024

The POTUS Donald Trump has frozen USAID for all countries for 90 days except for Israel and Egypt, in an order issued on January 25. USAID has directed its implementation partners to immediately halt all the existing contracts, grants, and assistance programs in Bangladesh citing an executive order by Donald Trump.  Researchers have criticized this order, which would put 6.5 million children at risk globally (https://www.businesstoday.in/world/story/65-million-children-at-risk-top-researcher-warns-of-serious-damage-as-us-freezes-almost-all-foreign-aid-462065-2025-01-26). Being the largest aid donor, the US disbursed USD 72 billion in foreign assistance in 2023, tackling poverty, disease, and humanitarian crises.  Whether Trump will rescind the order after 90-days remains to be seen. However, at best it may be restored selectively.

In 2023, US foreign assistance to Bangladesh stood at USD 490 million (all told 5% military and 95% economic); this included USD 190 million in humanitarian aid, USD 99 million for governance; USD 51 million for agriculture, USD 49 million for health and population, USD 34 million for community assistance, USD 28 million for education, USD 15 million for administrative costs and USD 15 million under the head of “others”.  Following the CIA-engineered regime change in Bangladesh last year, a six-member delegation, led by US Deputy Under Secretary of the Treasury Department, Brent Neiman, visited Bangladesh in September 2024, where Neiman announced that the US is committed to supporting Bangladesh's inclusive economic growth, institution building and development and will provide “an additional USD 202 million of aid” to Dhaka. Earlier, Mohammad Yunus, Chief Adviser to the Interim Government of Bangladesh had appealed in a televised address for USD 5 billion in aid to help stabilise the economy. In 2023, Bangladesh sought USD 4.7 billion bailout from the IMF. Incidentally, India also received USD 150 million in USAID during 2023.

World Bank country director Abdoulaye Seck meets Chief Adviser to the interim government Professor Muhammad Yunus at the State Guest House Jamuna in Dhaka on 17 September 2024
World Bank country director Abdoulaye Seck meets Chief Adviser to the interim government Professor Muhammad Yunus at the State Guest House Jamuna in Dhaka on 17 September 2024

Stopping of USAID to Bangladesh no doubt would be a jolt but is all the money flowing into Dhaka only from the US? The IMF approved the first tranche of the loan package for Bangladesh on January 30, 2023, with Bangladesh receiving $447.8 million on February 2, 2023. The entire IMF loan is to be disbursed to Bangladesh in seven instalments over three and a half years, concluding in 2026. In December 2024, Bangladesh and the World Bank signed two financing agreements totalling USD 900 million to help the country achieve environment sustainability, inclusive growth and climate resiliency, including in urban infrastructure. Bangladesh and the World Bank signed two financing agreements totalling $900 million today to help the country achieve environment sustainability, inclusive growth and climate resiliency, including in urban infrastructure.

Bangladesh is in the process of repaying a loan taken from China. China, which foresaw the regime change in Bangladesh, was non-committal to Sheikh Hasina’s request for another USD 5 billion ‘soft loan’ during her last visit to Beijing. In November 2024, Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen hosted a reception for the Islamist parties in Dhaka, where he said, "Regardless of changes in domestic or regional circumstances, the China-Bangladesh relationship has remained steadfast, progressing steadily in the right direction."  On January 18, 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed readiness to enhance political mutual trust and deepen cooperation with Bangladesh, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  Guo Jiakun, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, highlighted importance of mutual respect and cooperation between the two nations, saying China is prepared to work closely with Bangladesh across various levels to advance their comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. Both countries are looking forward to celebrating the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic relations in 2025, which is being designated as the "China-Bangladesh People-to-People Exchange Year". Concurrently, Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake made his first visit to China January 14 to 17, 2025, met Chinese President Xi Jinping, and signed 15 bilateral agreements; including for economic development, agricultural exports, and aligning with China's BRI.

Bangladesh is a member of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation comprising Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Turkiye. Yunus has called upon Muslim nations for economic help, who would be more than pleased with the rapid pace of radical Islamisation Bangladesh has achieved under Yunus and funds would be flowing in. It may be noted that even when Pakistan was under US sanctions, funds from the US were flowing from front organizations in America to front organizations in Pakistan affiliated to terrorist organizations. Such networks are common. For example, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in Myanmar is funded by Pakistan’s ISI, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), as well as private entities in Saudi Arabia.

According to figures released by the Interim Government of Bangladesh on January 1, 2025, Bangladesh received over USD 26.889 billion in remittance in 2024, while nearly 10.11 lakhs workers went abroad with jobs during the period. According to Bangladesh Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET), 9,59,533 men and 60,582 went abroad with employment in 2024. How this would contribute to global radical Islamisation is another issue. But Bangladesh is not going to collapse the way the Indian media is portraying – Afghanistan did not. Moreover, with the CIA-engineered regime change, CIA also will “also” ensure Bangladesh does not collapse.

What should draw serious concern is the rapid Bangladesh-Pakistan bonding overseen by China and its strategic fallout in South Asia; since the takeover of Bangladesh by Islamists was also methodically engineered by the US with the aim of destabilising South Asia. On January 14, 2025, Lt Gen SM Kamr-ul-Hassan, PSO of the armed forces division of Bangladesh, who is also the second-in-command of Bangladesh army, held separate meetings with Pakistan's chief of army staff Gen Syed Asim Munir and chairman joint chiefs of staff committee Gen Sahir Shamshad in Islamabad. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) of Pakistan, Hassan held extensive discussions with the Pakistan army chief on the "evolving security dynamics in the region and explored further the avenues for enhancing the bilateral military cooperation" and both generals underscored the importance of a "stronger defence relationship", emphasising that the enduring partnership between the two nations must remain "resilient against external influences".

According to news reports of January 23, 2025, a four-member delegation, comprising ISI chief Lt Gen Muhammad Asim Malik, Maj Gen Shahid Amir Afsar, Maj Gen Alam Amir Awan and Muhammad Usman Zatif, in Dhaka since January 21, left for a secret visit to Bangladesh’s Rangpur District which is close to India’s ‘Chicken Neck’; a narrow strip of land that connects India’s northeast with rest of India. The Pakistani delegation visit was on the invitation extended by Lt Gen SM Kamr-ul-Hassan, during his Islamabad visit in the previous week. The Pakistani delegation was to visit Chittagong Hill Tracts and the Rangpur District before returning to Islamabad on January 24.

Significantly, the above Pakistani delegation met Bangladesh’s Director General Foreign Investigation and Major General Alam Amir Awan (in-charge of intelligence operations), as well as ULFA commander Paresh Barua to discuss his connections with Northeast India. Training camps of ULFA have been reopened (shut by the Sheikh Hasina government) around the northeastern border in Bangladesh. At the behest of Paresh Barua, people from the Northeast are being recruited. These camps of ULFA are said to be around the Kassalong reserve forest area along the Kassalong river in Bangladesh; to include Baghisha Upazila and Dighinalah areas. Paresh Barua’s death sentence by the previous government was commuted to 14-years by the Interim Government of Bangladesh. The aim is to provoke unrest in the Northeast.

Lt. Gen. SM Kamr-al-Hasan led Pakistani naval delegation in Karachi, Pakistan
Lt. Gen. SM Kamr-al-Hasan led Pakistani naval delegation in Karachi, Pakistan

Concurrently, Pakistan Navy invited a Bangladesh Navy delegation to Karachi, as reported in the media on January 20. Lt Gen SM Kamr-ul-Hasan, who led the Pakistani delegation, held meetings with Rear Admiral Abdul Munib, Commander of the Pakistani Fleet, Rear Admiral Faisal Amin, Commander of the Coast, and Rear Admiral Salman Ilyas, Managing Director of Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works. During his visit, Hasan also reviewed Pakistani naval ships and units. As per the official statement from the Pakistan Navy, the discussions focused on strengthening professional ties and addressing mutual interests. Apparently, Pakistan wants to increase its presence in the Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh is more than amenable.

Lt Gen Kamr-ul-Hassan’s visit to Pakistan was preceded by the visit of Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs advisor Touhid Hossain visiting China in anticipation of Yunus’s likely visit to China in the summer of 2025. This flurry of back-to-back meetings between Bangladesh and Pakistani officials apparently is to solidify Pakistan-Bangladesh relations and chalk out military-security objectives in the near and mid-terms. Pakistan ISI is possibly coordinating all preparations and planning anti-India operations under its ’Mission North East’. The Pakistan army is to commence training the Bangladesh army in four army cantonments of Bangladesh commencing next month – February 2025. With Bangladesh removing visa restrictions for Pakistanis, Pakistani terrorist leaders are frequenting Bangladesh periodically. Now Bangladeshi terrorist leaders are also visiting Pakistan obviously on invitation of the ISI; to coordinate jihad against India – Ghazwa-e-Hind. What planning is being done needs no intelligence.

Mufti Jashim Uddin Rahmani, the Chief of Ansarullah Bangla Team, an affiliate of Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) along with his disciple Mufti Haroon Izhar on a visit to Pakistan
Mufti Jashim Uddin Rahmani, the Chief of Ansarullah Bangla Team, an affiliate of Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) along with his disciple Mufti Haroon Izhar on a visit to Pakistan

The anti-India stance of Mohammad Yunus and his leading Bangladesh on the path of radical Islamization is more than evident. Yunus has held meetings with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on two occasions and has accepted an invitation to travel to Pakistan. What role he will have as and when elections are held in Bangladesh is not known. However, reversing from the path of radicalization is becoming more and more difficult with Pakistan fully backing Bangladesh and the oversight of China. At the same time, tensions have been rising along the border between India and Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Border Guards are becoming more and more aggressive, with only 50% of the land border fenced in all these years and some 350-km of riverine borders, which leaves tremendous scope for grey zone operations. Ironically, the Indian government is loath to place international borders under the Army.

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.

About the author

Lt. Gen. Prakash Katoch (Ret'd)

Lt. Gen. Prakash Katoch (Ret'd)

The author is a former Lieutenant General of the Indian Army, former Director General of Information Systems and a Special Forces Veteran.

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