Indian Defence Review and Policy of Hedging

On March 24, 2026, the defence review, chaired by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, focussed mainly on possible disruptions of defence supply chains, as well as issues related to maintenance and serviceability of existing military equipment in backdrop of the West Asia crisis, which significantly disrupted global trade routes. Rajnath called for drawing lessons from ongoing conflicts to formulate a road map for the next decade. It is strange, because India still doesn’t have a national security strategy (NSS) despite the NSA officially tasked in 2018 to formulate one. CDS Gen Anil Chauhan says India doesn’t need a written NSS (sic)?

India demonstrated solidarity with US-Israel even before the war began by seizing three Iranian oil tankers under American sanctions to appease US President Donald Trump. PM Modi’s address to Israel’s Knesset is viewed as an indication of comfort, or rather support, to Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank. Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to heads of Gulf states condemning Iranian attacks. He also spoke to Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has asked Modi for BRICS to condemn US-Israeli war on Iran since Modi chairs the 2026 BRICS Summit. But this will unlikely happen with India’s deference to Trump who is anti-BRICS. 

India is pushed into the backseat in peace negotiations for West Asia. Pakistan hosted Gulf foreign ministers meeting on March 29, assisted by China, and Pakistan is facilitating the US-Iran ceasefire dialogue. India has become a spectator in a region where it claims to be a balancer and first responder. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has been terming India’s foreign policy multi-alignment in own national interests, which is no great shake since every country does so. His latest semantics is praising a policy of hedging, which equates him to a hedgehog having poor eyesight and soft hairy belly that tucks in its head and tail forming a ball at the slightest inkling of any threat despite the spines.

China is increasingly drawing India’s neighbourhood in its strategic sphere – Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka. Bangladesh army chief is on a visit to the US following an FBI visit to Dhaka and increased presence of US marines in that country. Islamabad has China’s total operational support, while Trump considers Pakistan a strategic partner. Tulsi Gabbard calling Pakistan a missile-cum-nuclear threat shouldn’t fool anyone with US (and Israel?) nukes stored in Pakistan     

Is India holding strategic “underground” oil-gas reserves or is this hubris from Kerala because of upcoming elections  (https://www.facebook.com/reel/2892263027644550)? Now India has launched Operation ‘Urja Suraksha’ (Energy Protection); deploying naval warships for safe passage of Indian-flagged tankers carrying crude oil, LPG and LNG exiting the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is allowing passage through Hormuz to all friendly nations, charging Yuan 2 million per vessel.   But if the war continues (Trump’s temporary truce notwithstanding), Iran can sever undersea cables that support 95% of the global internet. This will grievously affect India and the rest of the world. With the US using Indian ports for logistics support, will India get drawn into the expanding war?

The role of missiles and drones in hitting enemy air defence, air and naval assets needs close analysis. In addition is cyber and information warfare, together with strikes on nuclear power plants, oil and water storage. Targeting civilians, hospitals and even the girl’s primary school at Mirab, in a bid to ignite an orange revolution in Iran has backfired. The invincibility of Israel’s ‘Iron Beam’ is shattered. India is importing MQ-9 Reaper drones against the Indian Navy wanting jet-powered drones, Notably,  six MQ-9 drones were shot down by Houthi earlier, and 12 of these have already been downed by Iran.

India needs a defence review to establish: its potential to fight a sustained war – in terms of weeks/months; timeframe and finances to equip the military for it, considering IAF’s fighter strength just about equals PAF presently and Chinese presence in the IOR; true value of the hubris about Atmanirbhara; manpower quality (politically-motivated Agnipath scheme) and shortages – where even the Israeli Army Chief is calling out a 15,000-manpower shortage in the IDF. Additionally, the move to procure additional 114 Rafale jets (more than 90% of which will likely be 4th-gen) despite France refusing 100% transfer of Technology (ToT), while ignoring the Russian offer of Su-57E with 100% ToT indicates kickbacks remain the priority.

With only 3 of the 11 satellites of India’s NaviC constellation functional, India depends on Starlink which also covers Bangladesh, while China has successfully obliterated Starlink using a 2-watt laser 36,000-km above Earth and Iran is also threatening to attack Starlink. How is this for security and what happens if Starlink cover becomes defunct or is corrupted – didn’t the US shut down GPS cover during the Kargil Conflict, forcing the Indian Navy to abandon laying siege to the Karachi harbour. India is far from deploying adequate technology to combat infiltration from its borders with Pakistan and Bangladesh, infiltration having become an election issue (sic). The recent apprehension of an American mercenary and six Ukrainians by the National Investigation Agency indicates the hollowness of India’s security paradigm (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/apathetic-national-security/). Under obvious US pressure, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has said that these seven foreigners pose NO threat to India’s national security – are we facilitating America’s anti-military junta operations through Indian territory? But what does Defence Minister Rajnath Singh have to say about two American tourists apprehended by the Kerala Police for flying drones over sensitive military installations in Kochi, and more importantly that over 200 incidents of drone sightings were reported in 2025 alone over defence zones across India, from naval bases in Mumbai and Visakhapatnam to airbases in the north?

Sponsored videos related to Rajnath Singh’s defence review say that India should be prepared to respond to possible Chinese mischief in the current geostrategic dynamics. But India entertained a Chinese vice-ministerial led delegation at the BJP and RSS headquarters in New Delhi, and has opened Chinese investments in all sectors, including border regions. Moreover, when Rajnath couldn’t order the army chief to fire at advancing PLA armour in 2022, what sort of Indian response to China can be expected now? Rajnath is considered the Indian version of Newton – lying under the tree and hoping Pakistan occupied Kashmir will fall into his lap. Can he explain why India couldn’t respond to the Delhi and Nowgam blasts?

Finally, the situation in West Asia has serious consequences for India, especially if the war prolongs, India requires a holistic defence review and a time-bound action plan to meet the fast-expanding challenges. At the same time, it will be interesting to watch the BRICS Foreign Ministers meet scheduled for May 14-15 in India, where majority participants, including Brazil, will be pushing for de-dollarization and the alternate payment system, while Jaishankar would be resorting to hedging in order to not annoy Trump,  

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.