Jubilation of the POTUS Donald Trump is unbounded after Hamas responded to his Gaza Peace Plan. Some view this as the glee on the face of little Dennis the Menace when Martha opened the door of the Wilson’s home. Trump posted on Truth Social: "I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE". He welcomed the acceptance statement by Hamas and urged Israel to stop bombing Gaza immediately, stating that it would be ‘too dangerous’ to bomb Gaza right now, the US President urged Israel to stop immediately so that all hostages are out safely. He also thanked Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt for helping in negotiations with Hamas for the Gaza peace plan.
Hamas responded before Trump’s deadline that said “all hell will break lose” if Hamas didn’t accept his ceasefire proposal. Leaders all over the world, including India, have welcomed the development. UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed Hamas' statement on releasing hostages and engaging with President Trump’s proposal. He urged all sides to seize the chance to end the Gaza conflict, called for a permanent ceasefire and full humanitarian access, and thanked Qatar and Egypt for their mediation.
However, at this point of time it is premature to celebrate the success of Trump’s peace plan. Hamas has agreed to release all the remaining Israeli hostages but says it wants further negotiations on a number of key points outlined in the US peace plan. In a statement, Hamas said it agreed to release all Israeli prisoners, both living and dead, according to the exchange formula contained in President Trump's proposal if the proper conditions for the exchanges are met. Tahir al-Nounou, media adviser to the head of Hamas's political bureau, told media that President Trump's statements are encouraging, and the movement is ready to begin negotiations immediately to achieve a prisoner exchange, end the war, and secure the withdrawal of the occupation.
The issue to note is that the Hamas statement does not specifically mention or accept Trump's 20-point plan but says it "renews its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents (technocrats), based on Palestinian national consensus and Arab and Islamic support." Also, it does not signal if Hamas agrees to disarm and will not play any role in the governance of Gaza in future.
In the above backdrop, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office has indicated that Israel was preparing to move forward with the first stage of the peace plan to secure the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza, following Hamas' stated willingness to engage in a peace plan. The statement added that Israel would continue cooperating closely with President Trump and his team to end the conflict, in line with both Israeli principles and Trump's vision for peace. However, a report by Axios news outlet claimed that Netanyahu was surprised by Trump's response to Hamas' statement, adding that Israel views Hamas' statement as failing to meet key aspects of Trump's Gaza peace plan.
Under the US plan, Hamas would have no role in governing Gaza but it implies that Gaza would be administered by Palestinians, not Israelis – which is not acceptable to Netanyahu. After the joint press briefing by Trump and Netanyahu, during which Trump announced the peace plan, Netanyahu reiterated his long-standing opposition to a Palestinian state, saying in a video statement shortly after the announcement: "It's not written in the agreement. We said we would strongly oppose a Palestinian state."
Also, the peace plan stipulates that once both sides agree to the proposal full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip, which is not happening as of now with Israel using drones to attack the aid flotilla. Hence, multiple issues need to be ironed out before the hostage exchange takes place. With Hamas saying recently it had lost contact with two hostages, there are believed to be 48 hostages still being held in the Palestinian territory by the armed group, only 20 of whom are thought to be alive. More important is what happens after the exchange of hostages takes place, with Israel holding all the cards and Netanyahu not wanting Palestinians to govern Gaza?
Trump’s new peace plan came in the backdrop of Australia, Canada and UK recognized Palestine, 28 countries demanded that Israel should lift aid restrictions and immediately end operations in Gaza. There is also growing concern over the carnage in Gaza, with 6,80,000 Palestinians killed (forced starvation deaths included) by April 2025 (https://arena.org.au/politics-of-counting-gazas-dead/), as can be seen even in Italy today with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni impervious to the news from the region.
Further, Trump has demonstrated he changes his stance periodically – even taking a full about turn – as has happened after his promises to bring peace in Ukraine right from his pre-election speeches and after assuming the second presidency. His penchant of making America rich, including himself and his family in the process, makes him captive to America’s deep state centred on the arms and oil lobbies. Moreover, he has been publicly talking about establishing a Riviera in Gaza, whereas, he actually eyes the oil under and off the shore of Gaza/Palestine. The latter obsession is why he is hugging Pakistan and because of which he wants to occupy Greenland.
The crux of the success of Trump’s peace plan depends on the following:
- Time taken to iron out the issues leading to the eventual hostage release and Israeli actions during this period; bombing, drone attacks, stopping aid – all leading to more Palestinian deaths including because of forced starvation.
- Meeting the conditions for the exchanges that are part of Trump’s peace plan – which Hamas referred to as “proper”.
- Disarming Hamas – the manner and oversight?
- Withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza after the hostage exchange – time taken, manner and possible hiccups.
- Subsequent governance and administration of Gaza, given that Netanyahu is not agreeable for this – can Trump force him to agree?
Trump’s peace plan anyway is for Gaza, which does not include peace with Houthi and Hezbollah. Continuation of Israel-Houthi and Israel-Hezbollah hostilities can easily be portrayed as actions by Hamas, if intentions are to continue operations against Hamas and getting Palestine vacated for Trump’s Riviera or Israel’s permanent occupation.
Finally, considering the numerous ifs and buts, will Trump’s peace plan work?
The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
