Weaponizing Rare Earth Elements

Rare earth elements (REEs), having unique properties in electronics, magnets, and catalysts, are vital for a wide range of modern technologies driving economic and technological growth; their importance having increased with the transition to green energy.  REEs are essential components in a wide range of products, including smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, wind turbines, and various defence and medical products and appliances. Demand for REEs is projected to increase significantly, especially for clean energy technologies, leading to potential shortages of specific elements like neodymium and dysprosium. Global rankings differ with rising woes of the supply chain.  Many of the world’s major rare earth producers have large reserves, but some countries with high reserves have low output. For example, Brazil produced only 20 metric tons of RREs in 2024, but Brazil’s rare earths reserves are the second highest in the world. China has the largest reserves of REEs, estimated at 44 million metric tons out of estimated 130 million metric tons global reserves. China also dominates the processing and refining of RREs, having accounted for over two-thirds of global production in 2024; 2,70,000 metric tons – up from 2,55,000 metric tons in 2023.

According to Nasdaq, the top eight countries with REE reserves in descending order are: (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rare-earths-reserves-top-8-countries): China, Brazil (21 million metric tons-  5,000 MT annual production expected in 2026), India (6.9 million metric tons – production in 2024 was 2,900 MT), Australia (5.7 million metric tons – 37,000 annual production expected in 2026), Russia (3.8 million metric tons – produced 2,500 MT in 2024), Vietnam (3,5 million metric tons – produced 300 MT in 2024), United States (1.9 million metric tons – produced 45,000 MT in 2024), Greenland (1,5 million metric tons – no production yet). Notably in 2024, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) downgraded Vietnam’s REE reserves from 22 million metric tons to 3,5 million metric tons. The issue of REEs has come into major prominence in Donald Trump’s second presidency although he is for fuel-driven cars, not EVs, to promote American oil and friendly Gulf countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. During his first presidency, Trump withdrew from the Paris Accord, ridiculing climate change as trash. Hence, the question of transitioning to green energy did not arise. During the 20 years of US occupation of Afghanistan, no effort was made to tap Afghanistan's mineral wealth, including Lithium, to be worth around USD one trillion, and Afghanistan’s potential as a major Lithium source being compared to that of Saudi Arabia’s oil, earned Afghanistan the nickname of “Saudi Arabia of Lithium". In his pre-election rallies, Trump kept saying if he was president, the war in Ukraine would not have happened, and that he will ensure it ends soon after he becomes president. But he is already resuming arms supplies to Ukraine, particularly more Patriot missile systems. The Epstein Files are also troubling Trump, because of which he told reporters, “Let’s all forget about Epstein. Let's talk about Ukraine again”. One major reason why Trump is not so enthusiastic about ceasefire in Ukraine is perhaps because the US and Ukraine signed an agreement on April 30, 2025, that would channel US investment into Ukraine's mining sector, particularly REEs that are crucial for defence and clean energy technologies; by establishing a joint Reconstruction Investment Fund to facilitate the development of Ukraine's critical mineral wealth; estimated to be around USD 15 trillion (5% of world’s total mineral wealth). The agreement covers 57 mineral types, including lithium, titanium, cobalt, graphite, uranium, and rare earth elements (https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-know-about-signed-us-ukraine-minerals-deal).  The agreement is seen as America’s long-term commitment to Ukraine's economic stability and security against potential Russian aggression – even though Lindsay Graham admits Ukraine is Russian territory.

Trump would also be peeved with  Russian forces capturing a lithium deposit in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, which impacts the US-Ukraine agreement to Trump and Pakistan has signed a crypto deal with the US, which benefits Trump’s family (https://www.sps-aviation.com/experts-speak/?id=981&h=The-Trump-Munir-Boogie). The latest is that Trump plans to stopover in Pakistan in September 2025 before attending the Quad Summit in India.

China views India in the American camp and continues export curbs against India. India is now planning to launch a Rs 3,500–5,000 crore (USD 404–577 million) scheme aimed at boosting domestic production of rare earth minerals and the permanent magnets derived from them. India holds reserves of 6.9 million metric tonnes of REEs but lacks any indigenous magnet manufacturing capacity and depends heavily on imports, primarily from China. In FY25, India imported 53,748 metric tonnes of rare earth magnets. Small-scale domestic magnet production is expected to begin later this year, Indian Rare Earths Ltd (IREL) has been directed to terminate export agreement with Japan, and regulatory changes to the Mines and Minerals Development and Regulation Act are also being considered to boost domestic production (https://www.ibef.org/news/government-plans-rs-5-000-crore-us-577-million-boost-for-rare-earths-amid-china-export-curbs). India is also in talks with Australia for sourcing REEs (https://www.india.com/business/masterstroke-by-modi-govt-china-plan-failed-as-india-to-sign-with-australia-for-rare-earth-elements-not-us-russia-uk-europe-saudi-arabia-7943877/). Concurrently, Mahindra, Uno Minda, Vedanta and other indigenous companies are showing interest in rare earth magnet manufacturing plans to support the growing EV sector, with the government planning Rs 25 billion in incentives and pushing for local sourcing to reduce reliance on China (https://www.financialexpress.com/business/industry-indian-companies-queue-up-for-domestic-rare-earth-magnet-production-3910005/). China recently discovered a large reserve of REEs in the Himalayas; a 1,000-km stretch, expected to contain 1.15 million MT of REEs (estimated at USD 120 billion) including significant quantities of praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.  This will significantly bolster China's dominance as a global supplier of REEs. However; these deposits are situated along the southern border of Tibet, an area with existing territorial disputes between China and India – implying a major part of these deposits is in Indian Territory under illegal occupation of China, and China should share these deposits with India

At the same time, China is known for planning decades ahead. It is rapidly advancing its deep-sea exploration, sending fleets of research vessels far beyond its shores, for mapping the seabed for naval advantage to securing critical minerals; leveraging oceanography for strategic dominance and mineral wealth. Beijing officially confirmed on March 1, 2025, that China is constructing the world's first 'Deep Sea Station' in the SCS to extract billions of tons of energy. China's most advanced oceanographic vessels, 'Xiang Yang Hong 01', 'Dong Fang Hong 3' and other research vessels have been periodically mapping the seabed in the Indian Ocean.  A recent incident involved a Chinese research vessel disabling its Automatic Identification System (AIS) while operating in the Bay of Bengal; its act of concealing its location through AIS "blackout" was detected by a French maritime intelligence firm, ‘Unseenlabs’. The vessel's activities, including seafloor mapping and acoustic analysis.

Most significantly, China is sending millions of deep-sea robots to explore the deepest segment (10,971 metres deep)  Mariana Trench, a massive underwater canyon in Western Pacific (which otherwise spans 2,500-km across the Pacific), to grab the rich resources lying below: Methane hydrate (Fire Ice) as potential source of fuel;  Polymetallic Nodules containing cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese for batteries, EVs and renewable energy systems – all being collected and pumped up by robotic mining vehicles. There are concerns of hazards to marine life but when has China bothered about environmental hazards? China is building a deep-sea station at a depth of 2,000 metres; designed for six scientists to live and operate for 30-days at a time – to build the knowledge and tools for deep sea operations. In early 2025, China unveiled a powerful deep-sea cable cutter, which can be a strategic asset in future wars; slashing away deep-sea data cables (nervous system of the modern world – internet, military communications and the like) without anyone knowing who the attacker is.

India has two licenses for mineral exploration in the Indian Ocean: first one (2002-2027) covering 75,000 sq km in Central Indian Ocean at a depth of six km (about 6,000 km off India's coast for polymetallic modules; iron. manganese, cobalt and copper; and second one (2016-2031) covering 10,000 sq km near Mauritius for nickel, cobalt, zinc and copper etc. But there is no news whether India has attempted any recovery at all of these minerals since 2002. (https://www.spsmai.com/experts-speak/?id=1674&q=Chinas-Deep-Sea-Obsession). China has rejected NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's warning about secondary US sanctions against China, Brazil, and India for supporting Russia, saying, "There are no winners in trade wars."

India has also branded Rutte’s sic warning as ‘Double Standards” in energy security.

Finally, the trade wars and weaponization of REEs will continue, given Trump’s MAGA and aim of a US-led unipolar world, together with moves to subjugate Russia and China. While the Middle East/West Asia continues to burn, many American (even Trump according to one source), NATO and EU officials are convinced that Russia can be defeated – notwithstanding warnings that China may invade Taiwan, because of which Trump is looking at India, Japan, South Korea as proxies against China. Kaja Kallas, Estonian prime minister and EU's foreign policy chief has gone to the extent of suggesting that Russia should be broken into small pieces - sic (https://www.reddit.com/r/YUROP/comments/1cvq3gn/estonian_prime_minister_kaja_kallas_said_that_the/). A Russian view is that WW III has already begun since the West wants Russia destroyed, which leaves Moscow no choice (https://www.rt.com/news/621486-dmitry-trenin-world-war-iii/). Will better sense prevail in the world? The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.