It is amusing to see the backflip by French President Emanuel Macron from earlier opposing to now supporting Donald Trump’s plan for Greenland and NATO’s role in the Arctic. This is different from Brigitte Macron slapping him in public and Trump advising him how to manage his marital life. Trump would have simply told Macron that while he shuffles prime ministers like a pack of cards, he can simply task Unit 702 to dethrone him, not necessarily like Maduro.
In May 2025, Italy asked Volodymyr Zelensky to stop the war in Ukraine and signalled no more money and weapons when the USD 100 million corruption scandal exposed Ukraine. This was concurrent to the alliance approving a new €430 million assistance package to Ukraine. European nations continue to pump taxpayers money into Ukraine; NATO’s proxy fighting Russia. This is despite the European economy and industry suffering.
It is no secret that a considerable portion of the money pumped into Ukraine is siphoned back to the US, which is why Trump entertains Zelensky in the manner he does, in the presence of European leaders. That is why Zelensky smugly struts around showing he can continue fighting Russia forever and will probably win the next election with American support as and when it is held. The West puts up with Zelensky’s propaganda of massive Russian strikes only killing two-three civilians. The US continues to supply Ukraine through other nations, especially the UK.
On January 15, 2026, Macron announced that France provides about two-thirds of the intelligence support Ukraine receives from its partners, including crucial satellite imagery and technical intelligence. France is also to deliver 100 fully-equipped Rafale jets to Ukraine. The façade that Macron is in loggerheads with Trump is similar to the hubris that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu don’t see eye-to-eye on many issues; while both are aligned with the mutually agree designated aim.
Trump and Macron are two faces of the same coin, as also are most European leaders. Were that not the case, they would not sit wagging their tails in the White House when Trump discusses Ukraine with Zelensky. Trump knows that Zelensky cannot win the war and the main hindrance to a peace deal in Ukraine is Zelensky himself. The CIA can dislodge Zelensky anytime but would not do so without Trump greenlighting it. Macron does not want the war in Ukraine to end, neither does Trump. After all, the US has not given up its aim of disintegrating Russia and eliminating Putin. If at all, Trump wants peace in Ukraine, he wants it on his own terms (accommodating Zelensky’s banter of not giving up any territory - retaining Donetsk and Luhansk), which won’t be acceptable to Russia.
Trump’s MAGA aim is to also make himself and his family much richer. His warmongering to grab all the oil and rare minerals will continue unabated. It doesn’t matter if America’s external debt has risen to USD 39 trillion; it can double that in his present presidency for all he cares about. He and his staff maintain that the Trump in Epstein Files is different from the POTUS Donald Trump. So, it is amusing to see calls from Trump to all and sundry to buy tickets for the movie ‘Melania’. All he has to do is host a World Premiere of the Epstein Files pricing tickets what he wants, which would make him rich as never before and perhaps wipe off part of the American debt.
Trump’s deliberate actions of disrupting the global supply chains and targeting economies, including that of Europe, has led to nations seeking FTAs elsewhere. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has already travelled to China and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now on a visit to Beijing on the same mission. Starmer also signed an FTA with India and perhaps let off that British Queen Camilla doesn’t wear the Kohinoor, which is why Prime Minister Narendra Modi is demanding Britian to return the Kohinoor, as well as other stolen Indian artefacts. But Starmer hasn’t returned India’s economic fugitives entrenched happily in the UK, despite an India-UK Extradition Treaty in force since November 1993.
Indonesia cocked a snook at Trump by refusing to buy F-35s, but Trump is riled at Canada also doing so and has threatened to fly USAF F-35s over the Canadian airspace. However, may have got the goat of Trump, the self-appointed Goon of the Global Village is the India-EU FTA. For that matter, a Facebook post shows TV host David Letterman accusing Trump of having slept with his 23-year-old daughter Ivanka. But neither the post has been cancelled nor Letterman sued for such an accusation.
But Trump is privy to the intricacies of the implementation of the India-EU FTA by Europe, and by the time it is ratified by all 28 EU members (which could take anything up to one year), and knows how he can twist the tail of which head of which European nation. The India-EU FTA has been in the works for a decade and a half, and found traction only around 2022 when America’s focus shifted to establish a pivot in the Indo-Pacific that included wooing India. Notably, this happened after the US permitted China to militarize the East China Sea (ECS) and more the South China Sea (SCS) over decades.
With the India-EU FTA. Europe is also looking for cheaper oil from India. It is no secret that Europe has been buying fuel from India, with the latter refining Russian crude. Germany alone, has been importing significant amounts of refined oil products (specifically gas oil/diesel) from India, which data suggests are produced using crude oil imported by India from Russia. This trade route increased by over 1,100% in 2023, allowing Germany to secure fuel amid sanctions on direct Russian imports. During the first seven months of 2023, Germany spent €451 million on Indian petroleum products, a more than 12-fold increase compared to the same period in 2021. Germany is not the only country in the EU increasing such imports, as India has become a major refined fuel supplier to Europe.
Trump knows all this but he blames only India. Trump has special affinity with Germany. During his last visit to Bonn, Germany presented him with a copy of the German citizenship of his grandfather Frederick Trump, who migrated from Kallstadt, Germany, to the US in 1885. Melania Trump also migrated from Slovenia to the US in 1996 and became a naturalized US citizen in July 2006.
During his January 2026 visit to India, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would not apply pressure on India for buying Russian oil, but his right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfG)-led government is fully aligned with Washington. Also, in January 2026, the Polish delegation to India, led by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, encountered diplomatic friction; India urged Poland to show zero tolerance for terrorism because of Polish support to Pakistan, while Sikorski questioned India's stance on Russia, calling it a "colonial war". So, how “all” 28 European nations ratify the India-EU FTA remains to be seen; with Trump playing Satan – calling himself Daddy on the Truth Social.
Trump can be trusted to find European leaders who can be persuaded to puncture the India-EU FTA by rubbing in European values enshrined in the Copenhagen criteria, which are the essential rules defining the EU. These require stable institutions for democracy, rule of law and human rights; ensuring members share EU values demanding stable institutions providing democracy, upholding rule of law, human rights, and respect for minorities. It would be easy for Trump to instigate some European leaders not to ratify the FTA, given India’s global rankings: 4th in Global Terrorism Index (GTI); 130th out of 193 countries in Human Development Index (HDI); 151st out of 180 countries in World Press Freedom Index, and the like. In addition, there would be America’s information campaign (overt and covert) to malign India to the extent possible.
Modi has said that the India-EU would open vast opportunities for Indian youth in Europe. No doubt Europe has been looking for Indian nurses, doctors, technicians, IT talent and the like, which may have to wait till the FTA is ratified. But we should expect Trump to activate his dirty tricks department to orchestrate attacks on Indians in European countries, as is happening in the US and some western countries, under the pretext of hate crimes or whatever. Among the many pointers to Trump’s devious ways, his officials have secretly met Alberta separatists seeking independence from Canada. The Alberta Prosperity Project, a fringe far-right group, held several meetings in Washington and is seeking US financial backing if a future independence referendum succeeds.
Without doubt there is rage against Trump within the US, in Europe, as well as around the globe. There are calls for a global boycott of the US.
But the question is can the European leaders stick together, realizing Russia is not a threat to Europe, and can they withstand Trump’s efforts to puncture that unity, which may be easy using the CIA. After all European leaders have put their individual political security above the country and the population all these years, which is why Europe is in this state today. Can that trend be reversed with Trump weaponizing the logic of break-up of NATO, leaving Europe vulnerable.
Finally, the European tangle is going to become more and more complex and there are no easy answers till Trump is the president, unless he is impeached and his presidency cut short, Can the EU kick out American bases from their land and invite Russia into the EU? Utopian isn’t it – but the ball is in the court of the EU.
The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
