Bamboozling West Asia

US President Donald Trump’s prevaricate flip-flops on Iran don’t surprises anymore; he has been claiming to have obliterated Iran’s nuclear capability, missile strength and military and navy to Iran ready to surrender, and more. In between there was news he wanted to use nukes on Iran, but his military was against it. Among his latest demands, Trump wants Iran to handover its Uranium only to the US, and that he will not lift the sanctions on Iran – nor compensate the USD 290/300 billion damage inflicted on Iran, to which attacks on Iran’s missile sites and other infrastructure are being added every day.

Notably, a Pentagon Inspector General report confirms that the US bombed the Minab Girls’ Primary School in Iran (killing 156 including 120 schoolgirls), and the US has bombed 22 schools.  But Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s only response is Pentagon has an “ironclad commitment” to prevent civilian deaths. Hegseth is naturally sucking up to Trump who accused Iran for bombing the Minab girls’ school.

The US continues to attack Iran, and Iran is attacking US bases, calling them legitimate targets. Exchange of fire continues in the Straits of Hormuz, over which Iran exercises control, notwithstanding the partially effective US blockade. Iran’s 600-kg uranium is assumed to be 80 feet below rocky surface, while US B-52 bombers cannot bomb beyond 50 feet below the surface. Trump reportedly wanted to nuke Iran but was advised not to do so, with analysts warning that China-Russia would then nuke Israel.

The IRGC is ready for US boots on ground, but Trump/Hegseth will unlikely employ US troops because of the expected high casualty rates. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visited Qatar to meet Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. This led to speculation that Trump wants proxy forces to seize Iran’s uranium, since al-Sharaa is assisting Israel’s ground offensive into Lebanon. But Russia’s FSB chief Aleksandr Bortnikov has said “According to obtained information, western intelligence agencies continue efforts to use terrorists from Syria as proxy forces in a war against Iran”, adding “the plan also aims to destabilize CIS countries and risks dragging more actors into the conflict, threatening to destabilize “the entire Islamic world”.

There is no dearth of conflicting reports – claiming reliability or disinformation. One report says Iran has agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third state (with China proposed as the recipient) as part of a potential nuclear deal with the US (https://militarnyi.com/en/news/iran-transfer-enriched-uranium-likely-china/). Another says that Iran already has a nuke and Pakistan has said there will be no negotiations on nuclear issues and continued threats to Iran would result in Iran demonstrating nuclear weapon technology. Concurrently, Iran's Deputy Parliament Speaker Ali Nikzad has called the Strait of Hormuz Iran's nuclear bomb.

The Arab states have trapped themselves into a situation by outsourcing their security to the US over the decades. They are in no position to decipher which attacks on them are by Iran and which are by the US/Israel, as pseudo-Iranian attacks are ongoing – similar to the Ukraine-orchestrated drone attack on Romania blaming Russia in order to further rally NATO-EU against Moscow. They dare not blame US-Israel even if evidence so points. Similarly, India dares not acknowledge that the rapidly expanding Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) is backed by the CIA. CJP is an asset for Washington to keep India under pressure, as are the Indians named in Epstein Files.

Trump faces huge criticism for unilateral warmongering without a strategy, killing thousands of civilians, as well as US soldiers (much more than the 13 officially acknowledged), sabotaging global economy (with US citizens also adversely affected), plus Trump’s malignant narcissism and impulsivity of going around in circles making demands with no end in sight. But the entire purpose of US using USD 50 billion to blow up Iran and murder children is viewed to funnel billions of dollars to weapons makers and make the rich richer; end goal of the US military industrial complex is not to actually win the war, but to keep waging them so it can launder money into the hands of the elites.

With the war on Iran, the US has signed new defence deals with Kuwait; USD 800+ million in early 2026; USD 2.5 billion in May 2026; USD 8 billion in Spring 2026; USD 1.98 billion in June 2026. In addition, Washington has fast-tracked multiple arms sales for Gulf allies, bypassing Congressional review. Five separate packages for the UAE (USD 8.4 billion, USD 4.5 billion; USD 2.1 billion; USD 1.22 billion and USD 644 million) in addition to an unannounced USD 7 billion deal. Qatar has signed two deals for USD 4.01 billion and for USD 992.4 million. Bahrain has signed a deal for 50 PAC-3 MSE missiles. Trump’s pooch Volodymyr Zelensky is also reaping a bonanza in supplying drones and anti-drone systems to Gulf states.

The US oil industry is raking in billions. Trump is happy America has become India’s top oil importer. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on his visit to India that Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodriguez will be visiting India, which she has. India is buying Venezuelan oil through US channels, with Chevron the chief beneficiary. Existing crude prices are: USD 109 in the US; USD 114 in Venezuela; USD 88 in Russia and USD 95 in Iran. Little wonder India is continuously hiking fuel/gas/LNG prices (hoping the public doesn’t see through the government’s inability to stand up to the US) but prices are skyrocketing with every hike encumbering the common man. To top this, India has introduced ethanol mix in fuel that has adverse effects on engines. But this in turn will enhance the industry’s support to the government.

Trump’s periodic U-turns on Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Cuba and the like is making the stock markets dance ecstatically on a day-to-day basis. This provides an excellent opportunity for the rich to play stocks and keep multiplying their wealth. Trump’s cue is being followed by many countries, including India, as viewed by bankers here. Contradictory statements by the political hierarchy are making the rich richer, while the public at large slogs on facing the brunt of the economic pressure and unemployment.  

Despite so-called ceasefires, Israel has continued to attack/bomb Gaza and Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants the IDF to occupy 60% of Gaza, expansion of the occupied West Bank is continuing, and Lebanon has been asked to vacate a large portion of its southern territory. Killing of women, children, reporters, members of the UN force. Doctors and medical staff are of no concern. According to Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s Minister of Security, Palestinians are insects, not human beings.  Over 160 Palestinian children in Gaza have been shot dead by Israeli snipers for entertainment, according to the BBC. The UN keeps making noises kike a wet pussy cat, with Secretary General António Guterres knows accusations against US-Israel means end of his career.

When Iran withdrew from talks with the US because Isreal began bombing Beirut, Trump telephoned Netanyahu and said, "You're f*cking crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this". Netanyahu laughed it off by saying: “Sometimes, as in the best of families, we have these tactical disagreements. We always find a way to work them out. We can disagree in the morning, and we have a common action by the afternoon”. Incidentally, Joe Biden as the POTUS had also referred to Netanyahu as an “ar****e” but US support to Israel continued. Trump now addressed Netanyahu on Fox News: "If you strike back at Iran, you’ll find nothing more than what you saw under the previous 47 presidents”.

In a recent press conference, Trump claimed Iran would have had a nuclear weapon "in two weeks" and nuked Israel and the US in 2026 if he didn't start the war. Separately he claimed that Iran’s missiles have been reduced to 22%, while reports suggest America’s own reserves are down to some 30%, needing three years to build back. Also, the USAF has suffered severe losses of its MQ-9 Reaper drones; over two dozen aircraft shot down/ destroyed in recent operations, particularly against Iran. These losses are 18% of the fleet, down to 135 from 165.

The US Congress and Senate have only a small number of Jews, but the ‘Congressional Israel Allies Caucus’ is one of the largest bipartisan organizations on Capitol Hill; an overwhelming majority of the US Congress, consistently estimated at roughly (80-90%) across both chambers, demonstrates strong alignment through legislative voting records, military aid support, and resolutions backing Israel's security. That is why in the US Senate, an April 2026 motion to block certain foreign military sales to Israel was overwhelmingly rejected with a bipartisan vote of 40-59. Similarly, major resupply and defence authorization packages for Israel routinely pass the House with veto-proof majorities. Similarly, major pro-Israel political action committees, like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), maintain a strong base of financial support and endorsements across both major parties, though their level of influence remains a subject of ongoing debate in Democratic primaries.

Rulings by US judges, like not allowing Trump to rename the Kennedy Centre in his own name are rubbished by Trump, as are attacks on foreign soil without approval of the Senate. A recent vote in the US House directed Trump to withdraw US  forces from the conflict with Iran or win approval from Congress to continue the war; raises doubts whether Trump engineered this motion to get out of the Iran war or will Trump launch a false flag operation telling the Congress Iran’s intentions are anti-US? But the bottom-line is if Trump doesn’t toe the line of Netanyahu, he should be prepared to be impeached and go to prison.

Now that the Israel-Iran war is resumed, as has the US-Iran war, what should the world look forward to? Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard warns that Israel will have to go to war with Turkey and Egypt once they finish off Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon. “The storm is coming,” he says, unlike anything the world has ever seen. Apparently, the intention is the complete overhaul of West Asian geopolitics.

Meanwhile, according to a report, the UAE has joined Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UK, France, Kuwait, China, Japan and some others in responding to Iran and Oman’s Joint Control of the Strait of Hormuz is shaping maritime flow across the Gulf and beyond. But this appears too optimistic a hubris. The world will need to prepare for more supply chain disruptions and economic hardship.

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.