Pakistan has seen a surge of terrorist attacks in recent months. Despite the launch of the Operation Azm-e-Istehkam by the government of Pakistan in June 2024, Pakistan has failed to mollify China. The operation was launched as a response to the terror threats faced by the Chinese personnel and investments in Pakistan. However, the attacks persisted.
Since then, Beijing proposed to deploy its own security to Pakistan.
A written proposal was dispatched to Islamabad by Beijing for Pakistani security agencies to review. It outlined the deployment of security agencies and military forces into each others’ territory to assist in counter-terrorism operations and conduct joint strikes.
On Nov 20th, China and Pakistan commenced first joint counterterrorism military exercise “Warrior-VIII exercise”, which would extend until mid-December. The exercise is the eighth in an annual series of bilateral drills conceptualized to enhance counterterrorism capabilities and military diplomacy between the two nations. The drills include the troops from the Western Theatre Command of China’s People's Liberation Army with focus on a multi-tiered training in accordance with the actual combat process.
While the joint exercise commenced, on the same day, a civilian convoy consisting of 200 vehicles enroute to Peshawar from Parachinar came under a heavy gunfire attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province in Kurram district. The area is infamous for its history of sectarian disharmony between Sunni and Shiite communities and is also the area of operations of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Over 39 people were killed on Nov 20th in the attack that came to be dubbed as one of the region's deadliest in recent years.
Since it’s a developing story with no group having claimed the attack, the speculations have been placed on TTP. However the possibility of the attack as a response to the October 12th 2024 assault in Kurram district, which consumed 15 lives due to the clash among tribal groups has not been over ruled either.
Regardless of the sectarian clashes between the tribes in various provinces, the commonality of shared anti Sino-Pak sentiments has been the factor for the terror attacks.
Amidst the recent developments, Pakistan has also announced a comprehensive military operation on separatist groups in the province of Balochistan.
The incidents prompting to Sino-Pak joint counter terrorism drills.
The presence of the Chinese in Pakistan has been perceived as colonisation by many insurgent and militant groups fighting for independence from Pakistan.
The apprehension of being marginalized or subjugated in their own region by Pakistan government for the political-economic relations with Beijing has been a primary component for the rise in insurgency and militant activities in Balochistan, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
The arbitrary raids, crack downs, violation of human rights, introduction of stricter blasphemy laws, extrajudicial killings and displacement of many Baloch, Sindhis, Pashtuns and local inhabitants by the of Pakistan military has aggravated the situation further. Apart from the eruption of newer terrorist/separatist splinter groups, the country has been experiencing series of mass protests from its citizens.
Additionally with Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan, groups like Tehreek–e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Hafiz Gulbahadur group have managed to foster strong alliances with anti-Pakistan networks in Afghanistan and are being accommodated with safe havens on the Afghan soil. Moreover, the unresolved issues between Pakistan and the Taliban government over border skirmishes and refoulement of the Afghans from Pakistan has added to the Islamabad’s security concerns.
With negligible cooperation from Taliban, Pakistan faces equal number of internal and external threats, which target its military, establishments along with Chinese investments and citizens.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship of the Belt and Road Initiative with over $65 billion USD invested in it, has been a perpetual target of terror attacks.
The government of Pakistan is left in a quandary as the cost for launching a large-scale military operation will prove difficult for an already cash strapped Pakistan.
Post the launch of CPEC projects, a militarily trained unit of over 13,000 troops has been deployed to safeguard the initiatives nationwide. However, the attacks on Chinese nationals have left Beijing dubious about the effectiveness of the Pakistan military efforts.
In 2021, Pakistani Major General Ayman Bilal disclosed he had been ordered to throttle the Baloch resistance on the orders of Beijing under “operation Ground zero”. The end of Baloch insurgency would cater to the success of CPEC. Thus China had no qualms financing the operation.
Pakistan has always been cautious to never ruffle the Chinese feathers. This was apparent in regards to the Lal Masjid operation in 2007. The operation was a result of direct Chinese pressure on then President General Pervez Musharraf, who was expected to carry a punitive action against the Islamic fundamentalists responsible for the abductions and killings of Chinese citizens. Post the operation Lal Masjid, heavy backlash followed against the Musharraf government. It was criticized for pandering to Chinese concerns and hurting the religious sentiments of Muslims by ordering a siege at the Lal masjid. At the time, a taped message of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s No.2 in Al Qaeda was being broadcasted at various places in Pakistan, calling for jihad against the Army raid into the Lal Masjid. Since then, anti China sentiments have continued to brew amongst the people.
In November 2018, the BLA orchestrated an attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi, killing four people. This followed by another attack on a luxury hotel in Gwadar, often used by Chinese nationals working at the port. By June 2020, the BLA claimed responsibility for the attack on the Pakistan Stock Exchange, where Chinese companies own 40% of the stakes.
On 21st April 2021,Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) claimed an attack at hotel Serena in Quetta. The same year, a convoy of Chinese workers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was attacked, killing 9 Chinese nationals. This was believed to be the work of TTP.
On 20th August 2021, BLA targeted a vehicle carrying Chinese nationals in Gwadar, Balochistan.
By 2022, BLA claimed another fidayeen attack. Three Chinese instructors at the Confucius Institute of the University of Karachi and their Pakistani driver were killed.
On September 6th 2023, TTP launched a large-scale operation in Chitral district in KP on the occasion of Pakistan’s National Defence Day. Heavy artillery and exchange of gunfire commenced between the Pakistan military and TTP fighters.
On 26th March 2024, Earlier in March, Five Chinese workers and their local driver were killed in a BLA fidayeen attack, when an IED laden vehicle rammed into the workers’ convoy enroute to the Dasu dam, in KP.
Later on 7th October 2024, two Chinese nationals died in a suicide attack near Karachi's Jinnah International Airport. The BLA claimed responsibility. Prior to the bombing, two Chinese nationals were shot by a Pakistani guard in Karachi on 5th November 2024. Even though the authorities dismissed the incident as a personal scuffle, the fact that the safety of Chinese citizens remains much in question.
The Chinese Reaction
Following the string of incidents in October, the Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Mr. Jiang Zaidong , at a seminar titled 'China at 75', strongly condemned the terror attacks on the Chinese while censuring Pakistan for its inability to secure the Chinese assets or curb terrorism. He stressed on China’s reluctance to deploy its citizens in areas of threat while mentioning the special exception his country made in regards to Pakistan.
Due to the ongoing developments, in terms of the political and financial uncertainty In Pakistan, it is probable for China to temporarily hold off on making newer investments in the CPEC.
China initially pressured Pakistan to announce a large scale comprehensive military operation ‘Operation Azm-i-Istehkam’ and later demanded that the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif personally supervise the investigation into terrorist attacks on the Chinese nationals in Karachi.
Despite it all, the Pakistani government guarantees to buff the security failed to ameliorate the Sino worries. Post the attack in March 2024, the Power Construction Corporation of China (PCCC) which oversees the operations of Tarbela 5th extension Hydropower project also suspended its activities and laid off over 2000 employees due to security concerns. The completion of Tarbela 5th extension project was expected to be completed by 2026, with the support of the world bank.
Beijing has consistently pushed Islamabad to implement the Global Security Initiative. Under this initiative both nations have complied to carry joint police and paramilitary exercises in Gilgit-Baltistan and Xinjiang region.
Additionally, the threats posing from the Uyghur separatist groups, such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) or the Huis, which are been reported to have safe havens in Gilgit-Baltistan may be curbed through these operations. It can be anticipated that Chinese security personnel may be placed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan regions, where Chinese investments and personnel are frequently targeted by the Baloch insurgent groups. Previously Pakistan had limited the number of Chinese private security companies (PSCs), while giving first priority to local recruitment. However the recent incidents may pave for more relaxed restrictions in regards to the number of Chinese PSC’s placed on the ground.
China’s proposed security mechanism focuses on the Chinese personnel managing the inner security grid, while the Pakistani forces would oversee the outer grid of security.
Reports of Beijing requesting Islamabad to permit it to establish a military base at Gwadar Port have surfaced. However, these speculations were denied by the Pakistan.
Furthermore, the recent increment in Pakistan’s military budget to $162 million suggests the boosting of its security measures. This is the second largest defense grant in 2024 after the already sanctioned $218 million for Operation Azm-e-Istehkam. These addendums come supplementary to the already aggrandized defence budget of $7.64 billion which Pakistan has allocated to itself with an increase of 14.5% from 2023.
It can be assumed that through these efforts, Pakistan hopes to fortify its relation with China. 82% of Pakistan’s arms imports come from China and with its direct security intervention in Pakistan along with a military base at Gwadar, the Chinese aspirations for counterbalancing the US-India alliance may be possible.
China currently has a naval fleet strength of 370 warships, which is expected to grow to 435 by 2030, along with advanced Type 096 nuclear submarines. Gwadar Port would be forefront for its ambitions. The natural deep water provision with the access to the shortest commercial trade routes due to its strategic position is the primary reason for Beijing’s interest in Gwadar.
With an expectation of $1.6 billion expansion planned since 2015 in regards to the Gwadar port, Pakistan has failed to materialize its plan due to the terror threats from the local insurgents. Hence, it is likely for Pakistan to view the Chinese offer for joint counter terrorism operations as favourable but it would be also crucial for it to exercise caution due to the disgruntled sentiments of its citizens arising from the Sino-Pakistan mawkish relations.