India – The Racing Superpower

News says India is a racing (not rising) superpower, having overtaken Japan to become the 4th largest economy in the world with GDP of USD 4 trillion. Does it really matter that India’s per capita income is USD 2,890 compared to Japan’s USD 33,900 (11.8 times higher than India’s)? After all, Japan’s population is only 123,103,479 and projected to be 119.9 million by 2030, whereas India’s population already is 1.4 billion and with no population control bill in sight, India’s population advantage will continue.

India’s external debt in Q4 2024 was USD 717.9 billion, which was an increase of 10.7% from the year before and is projected to increase 7.38% next year. Considering last year’s projected increase was 6.89%, we can extrapolate that the upcoming increase could reach 11.5%. Here again, America’s external debt on March 6, 2025 was USD 36.56 trillion and if they can print dollars endlessly, we have the highest taxation (unaffected by lowering global oil prices) and enough black money in circulation – Rs 500 counterfeit notes surged by 37.3% in 2024-2025 (https://indianexpress.com/article/business/counterfeit-notes-rs-500-denomination-surge-2024-25-10036695/). Volume of Notes in Circulation (NiC) rose to Rs 34.8 trillion (much higher than previous years) as per the RBI despite decline in cash usage with population using online payments/ transactions. Banking frauds tripled in FY 2025, with highest loss to public sector banks losses amid demands for explanations by the finance ministry.

If there is “one” thing that Indians, especially politicians, should learn from Japanese, it is humility. Some of our politicians have mastered the rarity in ventriloquism by speaking from their backsides. One parliamentarian says women in Pahalgam massacre were not brave; they should have absolutely fought – with bare hands against terrorists firing AK-47? He would have probably peed in his pajamas if present at the scene. Another minister from Madhya Pradesh called a lady Army Officer the sister of terrorists. Do they know farting in public is a punishable offence in Japan and what they have done is much worse. Addressing a conclave of chief ministers and deputy chief ministers on May 25, 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned politicians to avoid speaking out of turn – case closed.

The ’pause’ in Operation Sindoor is being utilised through Operation ‘Votes’. The world, especially politicians/political parties, should draw lessons from these two operations. See who benefits by sending Sindoor to every household? The three Service Chiefs have declined Jay Shah’s invite to attend the IPL Final on June 3 – sensing another ludicrous step to politicize military operations. On May 28, 2025, Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi visited Jagadguru Swami Rambhadracharya at his ashram Chitrakoot, who initiated him with “Ram Mantra” and asked for Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) as Guru Dakshina (Teacher’s Fee); wonder why he didn’t add Aksai Chin. Interestingly, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has stopped talking of POK “automatically” falling in our lap, instead saying people of POK want to be with us. His latest howler is Pakistan would have split in four parts if the Indian Navy participated in Operation Sindoor; probably thinks Karachi and Omara were pounded by the BSF, not by the Indian Navy. 

India’s all-party diplomatic outreach to 32 countries to educate the world on Op Sindoor and zero tolerance against Pakistan’s terrorism is hogging headlines (courtesy ANI) only in India; no foreign news channels report these foreign jaunts. How many countries (other than Ethiopia?) agreed with them holding Pakistan responsible for Pahalgam massacre is mystery; same as how many aircraft India lost, while BJP’s Subramanian Swamy saying five and government didn’t refute his claim

The CDS General Anil Chauhan told Reuters in an interview on sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore what is important is not the jets being downed but why they were being downed. He didn’t mention any numbers, but did Reuters seek this interview because the Pakistani CDS was also attending the dialogue?

Amid the above diplomatic outreach for drawing political mileage at home, comes the USD 2.6 billion Russia-Pakistan deal. On face value, it is just an economic deal to revive a Soviet-era steel mill defunct for many years, but the timing is more than noticeable. Can we read the signal Russia is sending at a time when the war with Pakistan is only paused and blackouts are being practiced pan-India, like war will break out tomorrow? Can we understand why Russia didn’t blame Pakistan for the Pahalgam massacre? Is this another foreign policy-cum-intelligence failure after failing to read the coming regime change in Bangladesh; that too at a time when Russia faces a war with Europe? Is the Indo-US trade deal that vital, with BRICS already frustrated with India?

Much has been said and written about Operation Sindoor including seamless tri-Service synergy and the like. But the major credit for the success irrefutably goes to the IAF (led by ACM AP Singh), demonstrating commendable operational efficiency in delivering precision strikes with limited resources under exigent timelines. The government’s dictum to not disclose number of jets lost indicates ‘political insecurity’ – similar to the prime minister not taking a single press conference since 2014 and fumbling in the joint press conference with Donald Trump during his visit to the US. Little wonder Mamta Bannerjee has the guts to challenge him for a debate. Ironically, the political hierarchy fails to understand that the number of jets we lost is far outweighed by the massive costs IAF inflicted on Pakistan – terrorists and terrorist infrastructure, billions of dollars’ worth damage by way of downing PAF aircraft, plus radars, communication and infrastructure destroyed at PAF bases.    

The din over Operation Sindoor will continue louder than skeletons dancing on tin roofs. But it is high-time we go beyond this three-day military operation and plan for future conflict/wars on multiple fronts, which will be far more challenging. And, who better than ACM AP Singh in showing the powers that be where we actually stand? Addressing the Confederation of Indian industries (CII) Annual Business Summit 2025, in presence of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, ACM AP Singh called for improved incentives, better pay, and a robust work environment to strengthen India's defence innovation ecosystem; raising concerns over India's inability to retain top talent in defence R&D, as many skilled professionals continue to migrate abroad. With Op Sindoor paused, he noted that India must now act with urgency. "We have to be ready now to be future ready. So that is the concern that yes I can look at the next 10 years, we will have certain more output from the Indian industry and the DRDO, but what is required today is required today. We need to quickly get our act together... maybe get into some quick Make in India programs so that we can achieve that “now ready” part of it." He also warned the industry against overpromising on delivery schedules. "Timelines are a big issue. Once a timeline is given, not a single project that I can think of has been completed on time. So, this is something where we have to look at."

Even before Op Sindoor the Air Chief had spoken publicly about Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) not delivering the Tejas Mk1A against orders placed by the IAF more than a decade ago. He told the CII Symposium "Why should we promise something which cannot be achieved? While signing the contract itself some of the time we are sure that it is not going to come up but we just sign the contract... we've been trying to encourage people but somewhere it'll break down someday." Calling for structural change, he said: "We cannot just talk about producing in India. We need to start designing and developing in India as well. When it comes to producing in numbers, the capacity comes in. So, we need to have this trust between the forces and the industry continued. We need to have the communication continued" (https://www.businesstoday.in/india/story/we-are-not-getting-the-best-people-iaf-chief-warns-top-talent-leaving-india-calls-for-better-pay-478313-2025-05-29).

Only ACM AP Singh could have delivered such a no-nonsense blunt talk; the effect of which, if any, will be seen in coming months/years. But why he has to do so is not difficult to gauge. For years, the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has been pointing out deep-seated corruption in the governmental defence-industrial setup; excessive inordinate time-delays, over-priced products at times compared to ones available in open market, and the like. Just one example is the 5.56 INSAS rifle produced a decade and a half after products from 11 countries were made available to the DRDO; yet the final product was not anywhere close to the top 10 state-of-the-art assault rifles available off-the-shelf (https://www.sps-aviation.com/experts-speak/?id=928&h=Make-in-India-Small-Arms).

The usual tactic by the DRDO is to shift the blame to the Armed Forces. But in a report tabled in Parliament in December 2022, the CAG had pointed out the DRDO’s “history of failures.” These included even “mission-mode” high-priority projects that have “high outcome certainty, as they depend on technologies that are already available, proven and readily accessible” (https://www.thecitizen.in/opinion/drdo-blames-army-for-delays-in-projects-1012942). The deep-state’s quick-fix solution came in the form of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) adopting self-assessment and posting a CAG who now is shy of pointing out what is wrong. To top this, the restructuring of DRDO has been suspended – allowing the goose to continue laying the ‘golden’ eggs. DRDO should focus on R&D, not commercialization, which should be the forte of the private sector.

When push-button telephones first came to India, within six-months the DRDO started marketing them under its own stamp – good old ‘Make-in-India’. Sure, we have come a long way since then but why are we showing HAROP drones as ‘Make-in-India’ when the drones still have the IAI stamp on them? As of May 27, 2025, the Kaveri engine was being tested in Russia for the indigenous ‘Ghatak’ UCAV. The fact that after all these decades we can’t even test the Kaveri engine (first run in 1969) and integrate it with an indigenous UAV in India? As the Tejas Mk1A nears combat certification, it is fitted with the French HAMMER missiles – after all these years the DRDO can’t offer a suitable missile?  Doesn’t all this reflect on the DRDO the Air Chief talked of attracting the right talent in the defence industry? But is there any surprise that with the reservations in DRDO and its work culture, how many IIT, IIM graduates have joined the DRDO, if any at all?  

Why the DRDO has been unashamedly giving timelines, it knows it cannot meet, is because it has no accountability because of deep-rooted corruption in sync with government officials. The startups are taken under their wings, with DRDO getting the credit, of which numerous cases can be cited. Yes, the defence industry has been opening up to the private sector in recent years, but a truly level playing field is yet to come up. The recent proposal to develop the AMCA does not mention equal opportunity for the public and private sector, but had this been offered to the private sector a decade back, we would have probably had the prototypes already. As of now the DRDO is indicating the first flight of the AMCA in early 2028 – good luck to them.

Finally, we must acknowledge the changing dynamics of the Indo-Pacific; America is working on a buffer zone between India and Myanmar (for which British and US mercenaries are operating in Myanmar for past two years plus), Trump’s fondness for Pakistan, Emanuel Macron warning China about NATO entering Indo-Pacific and the like. The media blitz about Xi Jinping’s imminent fall is same as the propaganda about Vladimir Putin two years back. We cannot afford to neglect national defence anymore. Making up IAF’s 12 fighter squadrons with 5th-gen fighters was needed yesterday. With a USD 4 trillion economy, why is the expenditure on defence and R&D so meagre? Why the Kaveri Engine Fund when lakhs of crores are wasted on electioneering and votes? We may trumpet leading Global South but we must manage our own national security – the so-called friends are traders who will only sell us weapons.

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.