Fickler’s Hammer

Assuming the second presidency on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump pledged: “My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier.” So, what happened? Trump is again fueling the war in Ukraine, supporting the conflict in Gaza to set up his dream Rivera, using Israel as America’s proxy to destabilize Middle East/West Asia, and has bombed nuclear sites in Iran; indicating this is just the beginning. 

Even before experts could analyse the aftermath of the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump posted on the Truth Social: “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity”. On June 10 he said he would look to avoid conflict and he would make a decision in two-weeks. But on June 13, after Israeli airstrikes in Iran he admitted: “We knew everything”, and on June 21, when he lamented that he wouldn’t get a peace Nobel, “no matter what I do”, his fleet of B-2 bombers were already enroute to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities in contravention of Article 56 of the Geneva Conventions, which prohibits attacks on nuclear sites due to the risk of radiation. Each GBU-57 that America’s B-2s dropped shoved global treaties (like the NPT and principles of engagement) into the trash can.

There is tremendous change in Trump from his first presidency to now. Why is Trump behaving like a lunatic, raving about Panama Canal, Greenland, Gaza, Iran and more, concurrently dining and serenading army chief Asim Munir of Pakistan (epicentre of global terrorism) at the White House? His verbal diarrhoea is laced with frequently changing statements. There have been reports he can’t get over showing Kim Jong Un a video about MNIA (Making North-Korea Great Again) and Kim sniggering on his antics during Trump’s first presidency. But that is not really the reason, which is pretty obvious. When Kash Patel explained how Barack Hussein Obama was groomed and “installed” as the POTUS, this obviously was no exception; Joe Biden and Donald Trump were similarly “installed”. So, Trump is now a fickler-puppet of the deep state, or as he would describe himself - licking the arse of America’s deep state. 

Tehran’s nuclear ambition was never the reason to attack Iran, with the recent Annual Threat assessment of the US Intelligence Community stating: “We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapon program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so.” But Trump rebuked his own Director National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, saying she was wrong to cast doubt on his claim that Iran could have a nuclear weapon (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/she-is-wrong-trump-makes-bold-claim-on-irans-nuclear-plans-again-challenges-us-intelligence-chief-tulsi-gabbard/articleshow/121986625.cms?from=mdr). Given Trump’s claim that “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated” the war should have ended but Israel continuing to pound Iranian airfields, with Iran responding. Everyone, including India, is advising Iran to cease operations, but no one is telling Israel and the US to do so.

After Iran’s token strike against US troops in Qatar, Trump  congratulated Iran and has arbitrarily announced a Iran-Israel ceasefire. He seems desperate for a Nobel Peace Prize, which would be a first with his bombing campaign. Handing over Syria to an Al Qaeda terrorist-led government and the bombing of a church in Damascus with over 22 killed should further Trump’s claim for the peace prize. In fact, the award ceremony could probably be shifted to Islamabad – making it another first.

But fickler Trump’s claim of a ceasefire can hardly be relied upon. Trump continues to harp that Iran cannot have nukes and “we will stop their oil exports”. There is a view that oil may be sold only for another 35-40 years, with the world moving towards hydrogen powered vehicles. That’s why Israel was instigated to attack Iran, and among the first things Israel did, was to attack Iran’s oil exporting terminal which itself makes it clear that their aim is to stop Iran’s export of oil. However, America’s deep state aims much beyond Iran’s oil, which readers must view to understand why the US wants to curb the growth of Iran by “any means”; ignoring this would initiate a larger regional war and has the potential to blow into World War III. Trump’s talk of nuclear talks is a bogey – same as a ceasefire talks in the Ukraine war. The ultimate aim includes: taking control of Iranian hydrocarbons (1.2 trillion barrels and 70% untouched reserves with future reserves expected) and the supply routes; wreck BRICS to consolidate the Dollar; disrupt the International North-South Trade Corridor (INSTC) linking India-Iran-Russia and go for Central Asia and gain US-CIA access to Central Asia Wahabification of the region to offset Russian and Chinese influence  (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10161759030800863&id=586255862&rdid=IBbV7BBmfF9527UI#) – same as ISIS cadres were inducted (via Pakistan) into the Badakhshan region of north Afghanistan bordering Tajikistan during US troop presence in Afghanistan. 

While Trump is trumpeting ceasefire, Israel, Qatar, UAE have shut their airspace. The US base in Qatar was anyway emptied in advance. Iran has declared everyone who helped a fair target. Will Netanyahu, who has brought destruction in Israel as never before, stop? Will he view cessation of hostilities a threat to retain his premiership? There is a view that all three parties involved (US, Israel and Iran) have reached a stalemate and want a ceasefire: Israel because its infrastructure got severely damaged, which it did not expect, and it is running out of AD missiles; Iran because it doesn't want an all-out war with the US and has proved that it can hammer Israel indefinitely; the US because it can't afford to get into a protracted war with Iran for domestic, financial and military reasons. The estimated cost of Trump’s 6-7 B-2 bombers on a 37-hour mission to drop 12 bunker-buster bombs in Iran comes to millions of USD but the US can print dollars like toilet paper and Trump can always hike the USD one trillion defence budget already sanctioned. Hopefully, better sense will prevail but America’s deep state and the Fickler will remain unpredictable.

Now US Senator Lindsay Graham, Volodymyr Zelensky’s bum-chum and always ready to sell himself to fuel the war in Ukraine, plans to introduce a bill for imposing 500% tariffs on any country buying Russia oil and gas. He says he has 84 co-sponsors for the bill, which he terms as an “economic bunker buster against China, India, and Russia” – talk of economic terrorism (https://m.thewire.in/article/trade/us-senator-lindsey-grahams-russia-india-import-crude-sanctions-bill/amp). This crazed idiot somehow fails to understand that all said and done Trump will again have to go TACO-TACO on this unless he wants America to self-destruct.

Interestingly, the IAEA damage report on Trump’s claim that Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated, says US Air Force was  careful not to hit reactors at a key Iranian nuclear facility (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/israel-iran-conflict-satellite-images-suggest-us-avoided-hitting-nuclear-reactors-at-key-facility/articleshow/122035895.cms#:~:text=For%20all%20of%20the%20destruction,at%20a%20key%20research%20facility.). Speculation is that the US-Israel attacks on Iran will push Iran to acquire nuclear capability. Moreover, if push comes to shove, Iran could get nuclear warheads from elsewhere since it already has nuclear-capable missiles. What happens next will be visible in the coming days. Will Iran open the Straits of Hormuz, closure of which the Iranian Parliament voted? And, if not, will this lead to more US action against Iran, as Rubio has threatened?

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.