Political Showbiz in Operation Sindoor

Prime Minister Modi’s Address to the Nation on May 12, 2025, attracted global attention. Some analysts feel Modi did not address the Nation immediately after the Pahalgam massacre on April 22 because he wasn’t sure that Indian Armed Forces, particularly the IAF, would deliver in the manner they have; striking terror hubs, multiple PAF bases, Karachi and Omara ports, extensive damage to Pak AD systems (China and US origin) etc. In a meeting chaired by Modi before Operation Sindoor, attended by the Defence Minister, NSA, CDS and the Service Chiefs, Modi said the mode, targets and timing of the response is left to the Armed Forces, which was for public consumption. Later, Service Chiefs were summoned individually to PM’s residence for Modi to vet every aspect of the operation. Calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff and hitting in such an elaborate manner is indeed commendable, but why at least the ISI headquarters were not blasted with so much hype of not leaving ‘preparators’ – fear of retaliation? This was indeed absurd – didn’t we later blast PAF bases and radar sites?    

Minutes after Modi’s address on May 12, Pakistani drones appeared over Samba, Jalandhar and Amritsar, even DC Hoshiarpur announced a partial blackout. Media reported only “some” drones over Samba, but Air India immediately cancelled operations in nine airfields, including in J&K and Amritsar. The drones aimed to ‘instigate’ an Indian response deep inside Pakistan.

Why the POTUS Donald Trump jumped in to ensure India-Pakistan ceasefire, and the manner in which it was done is covered here (https://raksha-anirveda.com/the-india-pakistan-ceasefire-dissected/). India can’t acknowledge Trump brokered ceasefire because it means Modi acquiesced to third-party mediation. The IAF (under political direction) has denied targeting Kirana Hills. But IAF did target the hardened military storage site for nuclear weapons and conventional ammunition in Kirana Hills, near Mushaf Airbase in Sargodha.

BrahMos targeting entry to the storage bunker - signalling India can take out Pakistani  nukes. This led to Pakistan conducting a tactical nuke test (recorded 4.0 on the Richter scale) and Trump’s intervention for a ceasefire. A former Army’s Vice Chief opines when IAF struck the storage in Kirana Hills, Pakistan may have been taking out fissile material for assembly of the warhead; hence the nuclear radiation leak and Pakistan importing an Egyptian Military IL-76 planeload of Boron on emergent basis to combat radiation. At an event in White House, Trump had said he told India and Pakistan that the US will not do business with them if they don’t ceasefire. Half an hour after Modi’s address, Trump again tweeted he brokered the ceasefire.

It is interesting to see how the Indian media is trying to ramp up the lie that the IAF did not strike Kirana Hills. Some Indian TV channels (like Times Now) are inviting ‘select’ foreign experts to say Indian Generals are “too conservative” to have struck Kirana Hills – might as well say Indian Generals are “too scared” otherwise but bold enough to carry out strikes on their own “without political approval”. 

Indian media says we shot down three Pakistani fighter jets and an AWACS aircraft (https://www.indiatoday.in/india/video/india-shoots-down-pakistan-air-forces-awac-3-fighter-jets-2721868-2025-05-09); but there is no such claim by the IAF. In the Balakot airstrike on February 26, 2019, India accepted loss of a MiG-21 because Squadron Leader (now Group Captain) Abhinandan was captured by Pakistan. We also then claimed shooting down a Pak F-16, but who shot it remains unknown because photos of the Abhinandan’s crashed MiG showed both missiles intact. This time Pakistan claims it downed three IAF Rafales, one Su-30MkI, and one MiG-29, (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-chinese-missiles-routed-indias-air-force-over-pakistan), which no doubt are exaggerated claims. Some sources indicate India lost three or at least two IAF jets including one confirmed Rafale  (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10232519785670884&id=1045208060&rdid=5NQzQNPrIZxgxIPB#).  Another post talks of IAF losing a Rafale and a Mirage 2000 (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10229880751951856&id=1500196238&rdid=KmTXvk4zTfvbg3z4#). The IAF initially only said all pilots are back home, which naturally includes pilots that bailed out before the crashes, but NOW finally has admitted to losing a Rafale jet.

The loss of Rafale fighter jolted India. According to a three-star veteran, India was forced to ground the IAF who have no answer to J-10C (leave alone JF-17 or J-20), besides, and India was unable to take out any Pakistani fighter jets - contrary to reports disseminated earlier. This explains why India didn’t strike deep inside Pakistan even when Islamabad violated the ceasefire for full three-hours from Srinagar to Bhuj. Modi knew this when he addressed the nation on May 12. His threats are somewhat hollow with the IAF grounded as of now. This is being equated with his address to the nation on November 8, 2016, announcing “demonetization will end terrorism”. Formalizing terrorism as an “act of war” means little unless we have the wherewithal to deliver protracted punishment and are allowed to do so; Trump says he used the threat of tariffs to bring India and Pakistan to heel.

How did Pakistan down the Rafale jet? An Indian view is that Chinese may have tested their advanced prototype PL15 or another missile. S-400 is thought to have a random-architecture-manufacture of its integrated circuits, thereby enabling a tweak in the software of each ICs. This has resulted in a nearly un-jammable radar algorithm in S-400s. Maybe, China (which also has S-400) tweaked the radar/ECM/ECCM in their air-to-air missiles. They had nearly 15 days of early warning, since Pahalgam. They could have flown in the prototypes and fitted them on a couple of J-10s; fire a normal PL15 and then the prototypes.

Multiple foreign sources, however, point to China using its advanced PL-15E air-to-air missile from the J-10. This implies we have lost our air domination over China. Compare this with the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) report released in February 2025, which says French Rafales won’t last more than three days in a war with Russia (https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/02/18/ifri-report-french-rafales-can-fight-russians-for-3-days/). The US-NATO war on Russia, using Ukraine as their proxy, has resulted in a tighter defence-technological embrace and India has cut down defence imports from Russia, giving preference to America. Significantly, China’s under development next-generation PL-17 BVR missile (Project 180) designed for ultra-long-range engagement up to 400 km, is expected to tilt the balance of air power in Asia, pushing the envelope of air-to-air warfare (https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/from-crisis-to-catastrophe-if-india-faltered-against-pl-15e-pakistans-future-pl-17-could-tip-the-balance-of-air-power/)

Modi’s penchant for political showbiz and drawing political mileage from anything and everything saw BJP’s election posters in 2019 sporting images of Wing Commander Abhinandan along with that of Modi and others (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/banner-with-bjp-leaders-and-wing-commander-abhinandan-election-commission-warns-of-action/article26483319.ece). This time it is not only the Bollywood movies on Operation Sindoor, one of which has been announced, but the main focus is on Col Sophiya Qureshi and Wing Commander Vyomika Singh reading out prepared statements in operational briefings led by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. Operational briefings are usually done by DG-level officers or at times by even Service Chiefs. Do we know both these officers had to fight legal battles in the Supreme Court to protect their rights in the Service and the same government was fighting tooth and nail against them to deny the same till the Supreme court threatened the government with Contempt of Court? 

The advantage of using these two officers (one Hindu and one Muslim) is softening the BJP’s image of hardcore Hindutva, the polarization lowered or upped depending on which elections are upcoming in the next few months; state, UT, municipal, panchayat, whatever. Ironically, we have lawmakers who can drink from the gutter to please Modi, or Trump would say they have their brain in their arse. So we have this rodent Vijay Shah, BJP member and Tribal Minister of Madhya Pradesh, calling Colonel Sofiya Quereshi the sister of terrorists (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=9950763691670757&id=100002116760126&rdid=oSd6qF9UAGmNju2A#).

Beyond the continuing political showbiz with no credible opposition that is pulling in different directions, where do we go from here? This is the era of drones and missiles, and this includes the sea; given China’s considerable capabilities in air, surface and underwater drones. We appear to have lost the air dominance over Pakistan and China, and we need to reverse that as soon as possible using all resources. We definitely need to catch up or rather overtake China. We also have a problem in not being able to detect terrorists using satellite phones and encrypted messaging apps to maintain contact with cross-border handlers through the Chinese BeiDou satellite system, which terrorists can use anywhere in India. We should also expect the Bangladesh army and terrorists getting the same equipment. India needs to resolve this quickly.

The precise and pinpoint accuracy of the BrahMos was very noticeable in Operation Sindoor; IAF hitting the dead centre of the runways of PAF bases and sometimes even the intersection of two runways. How this accuracy of BrahMos missiles was improved cannot be disclosed here. But it proves that India has the capability if the will and the resources are matched. At the same time, India should review its “No First Use” nuclear policy and keep the wherewithal ready to take out Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure and storage, not hitting just the mouth of a storage tunnel. Finally, we need to work all this silently, without bragging.

The author is an Indian Army veteran, Views expressed are personal.