India-Pak Ceasefire – Who Did Trump Rescue?

The guns have fallen silent. Pakistani drones continued violating the ceasefire from Srinagar to Gujarat, along with heavy exchange of fire along the LoC-IB three hours after ceasefire was to come into effect. The Corps HQ at Srinagar and Nagrota were targeted by drones and terrorists respectively. Explosions were heard inside BB Cantt at Srinagar. These are viewed as Pakistani military’s desperation or local commander’s not listening to their hierarchy, which is naïve. These violations were obviously directed by Pakistani army chief Asim Munir who otherwise is under America’s thumb. India must dispassionately analyze (sans jingoism) what has happened if we want to learn from the experience, notwithstanding politicians wanting to shove it under the carpet, as always.

It was mentioned in these columns earlier that the Pahalgam massacre would have been discussed in advance by the CIA-MI6-ISI and greenlighted by the CIA https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/op-eds/anatomizing-pahalgam-massacre/). This is more than confirmed now. A Pakistan-based geo-spatial company linked to federal crimes in the US was partnered by America’s Maxar Technologies. Two months before the Pahalgam massacre, Maxar received extraordinary orders for satellite imagery of Pahalgam and surrounding areas – from Pakistan’s Business Systems International Pvt Ltd (BSI); with details of who placed the order for these images deleted (https://theprint.in/defence/pahalgam-satellite-image-us-space-tech-firm-maxar-technologies/2620666/).

The Pahalgam massacre was timed with US Vice President JD Vance visiting India to deflect suspicion of CIA involvement. But now Pakistan is officially claiming responsibility for the terrorist attack,  terming it “Tactical Brilliance”

Despite this blatant admission and showing two fingers to India, the US hasn’t singled out Pakistan for this heinous act. Former CIA agent-analyst Larry Johnson explains CIA-MI6 are behind the Pahalgam massacre as well as the India-Pakistan war that followed). Did India walk into the trap laid by the US through its proxy - Pakistan?

It was also mentioned earlier that Pakistan “will” get the IMF loan, which it now has (USD2.8 billion) despite India making noises against it. When will we understand that the US, the UK and the West backed Pakistan; because of which, Pakistan was eased out from the ‘Grey List’ of the FATF? Are we naïve to visualize this changing in future?

Media coverage of Prime Minister Narendra Modi chairing the meeting for responding to Pahalgam, plus optics of Service Chiefs and Defence Secretary summoned to PM’s residence on separate nights drew political mileage but also gave advance warning to Pakistan. Donal Trump also hinted something was going to happen between India-Pakistan. So, not only did Pakistan vacate the 42 terrorist launch-pads that were earlier reported full of terrorists, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) knew in advance its HQ in Muridke would be targeted, hence, the HQ was vacated, the madrassa was shut and students sent away. India did target Bahawalnagar effectively but the claim by Defence Minister Rajnath Sigh that we killed 100 terrorists overall should be taken with a ton of salt. We may rejoice over killing Daniel Pearl’s killer (who could have been easily taken out by the US) and Azhar Masood’s brother and family, but Azhar Masood is alive and kicking.   

No doubt India has inflicted substantial damage  in Pakistan, which was covered in these columns (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/articles/indo-pak-conflict-widens/). Pakistan reportedly also launched Fateh-2 missiles to target Delhi but these were successfully intercepted and destroyed over Hisar. With regard to the war coverage, a veteran-scholar writes, “India’s external communication is caught between two extremes. MEA briefings that are overly formal, moralistic, and detached. The TV channels that reduce complex geopolitics to chest thumping and jingoism/theatrics. Between the sermon and the spectacle, there’s no space for a reasoned, credible and coherent narrative. The result? A complete vacuum of rational, strategic input. In a world where perception shapes power, this isn’t just embarrassing, it’s strategically suicidal”.

The government covering up own aircraft losses (3-4?), including Rafale fighter jets (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10232519785670884&id=1045208060&rdid=BsW9FqzP2WzVDuId#), has lowered government credibility, especially when mainstream media reported a fighter jet crash around 1.25am on May 7 (some 20-km from Bhatinda) with the pilot bailing out safely. Shouldn’t the government come clean with a statement and give due recognition and honour these IAF heroes who laid down their lives in the service of the nation?

Many media sources talk of Chinese J-10 aircraft targeting two Indian  Rafale jets (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/9caaf214c46509a7), serious implications of which must be analysed by the IAF. China naturally denies any involvement but that is expected, even if the report is true. Chinese satellites would have certainly monitored IAF aircraft movement and kept Pakistan informed. There are also reports of unencrypted conversation between our pilots monitored by China-Pak.

We may say that Pakistan requested ceasefire but America set the trap for us and pulled the rug when things got uncomfortable for Pakistan; Trump spoke to Modi and announced ceasefire. The US probably first consulted Pakistan after reports of India’s strike close to Kahuta (Pakistan engineered?) and Shehbaz Sharif’s charade of chairing the nuke body meet. The 4.0 earthquake in Chagai Hills could have been an underground low-yield nuclear test, following which Nawaz Sharif again summoned the National Command Authority on May 10.

A former army chief asks what have we achieved?

We didn’t even unleash missiles and drones on Pakistan when Pakistani military blatantly violated the ceasefire for a full three hour. The only message flashed in the media was “BSF given free hand to retaliate”; were the hands of the BSF tied earlier? Did we bow down because of the Indo-US trade deal, loss of Rafale (https://bharatkarnad.com/2025/05/10/rafale-proved-crappy-in-sindoor-rethink-this-french-option-for-mfa/), Pak wagging the nuclear tale, or all combined? Didn’t we understand why the US first said it would not interfere in India-Pak hostilities, then Trump suddenly announced a ceasefire? One comment read: “This ceasefire will be remembered as a lost strategic opportunity. It reflects a pattern wherein India has repeatedly stopped short of decisive action, allowing a wounded adversary to recover and regroup. In the theatre of geopolitics, such lapses carry grave consequences”.

Government contends it didn’t want to escalate the situation; did it fear Paki nukes, inability to tell Trump this much is not enough for us, or something else? The cover that any terrorist attack will be considered an act of war is hollow with the terrorist attack on the Army’s traffic check-post at Nagrota as part of ceasefire violations is a slap on India – a reminder that Pakistan will continue its policy of terrorism.

Pakistan has used heavy artillery and mortars on our villages earlier also. But the Centre issued orders to evacuate these areas only after civilians started getting killed. Even schools in these areas were not shut down from the start. Have these villagers ever been advised and helped to construct underground bunkers/shelters for emergency use? Soldiers are on duty, but the media mentions over 30 civilians killed in Pakistani shelling – do these lives matter? 

Will any heads roll for the Pahalgam massacre other than putting all the blame on locals? Isn’t this why we never learn? Where are these four terrorists of the Pahalgam massacre, who we want to chase to the end of the Earth? Do we realise the seriousness of the situation, how Pakistani terrorists are operating with the help of China, which can happen anywhere in India, using Chinese satellite communication equipment to avoid detection?

Terrorists in J&K have been using satellite phones and navigation systems based on BeiDou, the Chinese satellite system to avoid detection. Chinese telecom equipment ‘Ultra Set' of the Pakistan army is now with terrorists; Ultra Set operates on radio waves for message transmission and reception, linked to cross-border control stations. Messages are compressed and transmitted via BeiDou to a master server in Pakistan. Terrorists in the Pahalgam massacre, using Huawei satellite phones and encrypted messaging apps maintained contact with their handlers in Pakistan through BeiDou, which functions completely independent of host infrastructure, enabling real-time, high-accuracy navigation in remote terrain. BeiDou-enabled devices, including handheld navigation units and satellite communication tools, allow militants to infiltrate, coordinate, and operate in India without relying on conventional telecom networks. According to experts, opening up of these SATCOMs anywhere in India would not be detected since BeiDou covers entire India. We need to urgently find a solution to this. Pakistan has been using drones to induct arms, ammunition, communication equipment and explosives into India in recent years. Do we even know how many Chinese drones are in India?

What should we expect from Trump? Leniency in the trade deal – isn’t that naïve? The book ‘A Very Stable Genius’, written by Philip Rucker and Carol D Leonnig during Trump’s first presidency, mentioned Trump didn’t even know India shared a border with China (https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/donald-trump-did-not-know-india-and-china-share-borders-claims-new-book-120011601641_1.html). He now displays terrible knowledge of history, saying he wants to help resolve the 1,000-year old Kashmir problem (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114487190752990599). Does he know when Pakistan was born? Shouldn’t we ask him whether US mercenaries, sighted in Bangladesh, are to help the Arakan Army or is the CIA planning another Pahalgam in India’s northeast?

India must acknowledge the current level of deterrence demonstrated is inadequate; which should be decisive, unrestrained, uncompromising, and absolute. Our response must be faster and overwhelming. The minimal yearly defence allocations, which turns out to be negative in actual terms, are inadequate to ensure a comprehensive overhaul and rapid expansion of our military power on land, air, sea, space and cyber domains. What we demonstrated in this short war will not work against China, leave aside multiple fronts. Most important is the need to develop political resolve to stand up to bullies, be it China or the US.

Will the government seriously introspect the above or will it be sacrificed on the altar of political jingoism of having won the war? Bollywood is fully activated after Bollywood actor Anil Kapoor was summoned to meet Modi. The first movie on Operation “Sindoor’ has been announced (https://www.ndtv.com/entertainment/operation-sindoor-film-announced-first-poster-out-amid-escalating-india-pakistan-tensions-8377215), screening of which will likely be attended by Modi, and many more are in the making. The suspended IPL is being rescheduled. Will serious introspection be lost in the din of entertainment and enjoyment – until the next Pahalgam?

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.