Anatomizing Pahalgam Massacre

High-pitched political noises in India and Pakistan in the wake of the Pahalgam massacre (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/op-eds/pahalgam-terror-attack/) are deafening. Indigenous media is portraying that Pakistan is cornered and New Delhi is planning the hog roast. Pakistan’s foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto is braying like a rabid donkey (the types Pakistan exports to China) that Indian blood will flow if water-flow under the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is stopped to Pakistan.

US President Donald Trump has declared that the US “stands strong with India against terrorism” and that PM Modi and the Indian people have our full support”. India has received similar support from around the world, but “none” have blamed Pakistan for the Pahalgam massacre. Pakistan’s deputy PM Ishaq Dar has hailed the Pahalgam terrorists as “freedom fighters” and Pakistan’s defence minister Khwaja Asif cocks a snook at India by haughtily admitting Pakistan is doing the “dirty work” for the US and the West since decades.  

In his autobiography ‘Four Star Destiny’ published in media, General MM Naravane, Indian Army Chief during the 2020 Chinese invasion in eastern Ladakh, says he was categorically told not to open fire on the Chinese, and one night when he telephonically sought orders from the defence minister in wake of PLA tanks lined up and advancing, the defence minister told him he had spoken to the prime minister, and “Jo Uchit Samjho Karo” (do as you deem fit). Government has not cleared the book for publication; for fear of exposing its missing spine and more skeletons tumbling out.

Trump now says that he is “very close” to both India and Pakistan, they will figure it out one way or another, there is great tension between them but there has always been. This  certainly is different from signaling India do as you deem fit.  FBI Director Kash Patel assures India of full support – obviously to track down terrorists. Michael Krugelman writes that India shouldn’t assume Trump would be comfortable with military retaliation against Pakistan (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/note-to-india-us-needs-pak-to-track-jihadis-it-wants/). Many analysts have written in the past that the strategic significance of Pakistan is more to the US than India for obvious reasons – the dirty work under the garb of counter-terrorism cooperation. New Delhi’s importance to Trump today is trade (part of making America rich) and using India as a proxy against China. With Khwaja Asif’s admission, the CIA could well have green-lighted the Pahalgam massacre to keep the Modi Government under pressure. The manner of executions in Pahalgam also indicates the confabulations between Pakistani and Bangladeshi leaders and calls for Ghazwa-e-Hind in both these countries.

At the all-party meet (not attended by Modi because of his pre-election rally in Bihar), all were informed that the massacre in Baisaran area near Pahalgam was declared a "restricted area" for tourists until the Amarnath Yatra in June; “local authorities” recently opened this restricted area without informing security agencies, and local hoteliers, taxi drivers-owners, horse-mule drivers-owners, hawkers, resort owners took tourists there, J&K Police was also not informed either.

Can there be anything more blatant than this attempt to shift total blame or as Trump would say covering arses of officials responsible? No doubt terrorism can’t survive without local support and every terrorist attack in J&K (including this one) includes local conspirators, but can the Centre, Home Ministry, State Administration, State Police, State Intelligence and Intelligence Bureau (IB) absolve themselves of this massive security and intelligence failure? A veteran-scholar writes, “By failing to ensure the safety of citizens and tourists in a volatile region, officials have not just compromised security, but also undermined the trust that the public places in them. In times of such grave threats, accountability is non-negotiable …. it’s a broader failure to prioritise national security, and until those responsible are held to account, such lapses will continue to put lives at risk…”.

Where is this notification declaring Baisran 'restricted area' for tourists until June, does it include any other tourist spots in J&K, is it an afterthought and backdated, and most importantly, why were no signposts in prominent public places and hotels of Pahalgam to warn tourists? Mainstream media quotes “local authorities” saying they had no intimation that Baisaran is "restricted area" for tourists until June! Lives don’t matter to politicians (ignore crocodile tears) but in the instant case the official accountability must be fixed. Public expectation is of a timely inquiry and publication of findings to restore people’s confidence; the government owes it to the victims of the Pahalgam massacre. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has taken over the inquiry. But the outcome may simply endorse the whitewash at the all-party meet - only blame locals; same old story!

India has cancelled the ceasefire agreement with Pakistan. Pakistan never respected ceasefire, undertaking infiltration under cover of firing in the past. In 2020-2021 Pakistan fired artillery on Hindu-predominant villages south of the Pir Panjal Range. On February 25, 2021, DGMOs of India and Pakistan spoke on hotline, followed by a joint statement to strictly observe all agreements and ceasefire. Consequently, Pakistan moved heavy caliber guns, air defence system, artillery and mortars along the Line of Control (LoC). (https://www.spslandforces.com/experts-speak/?id=884&h=Toxin-Hand-of-Friendship).

Exchange of small arms fire is presently ongoing between India and Pakistan across the LoC, concurrent to multiple ongoing counter-terrorist operations in J&K. With intel reports of 42 launch-pads full of terrorists, ISI will likely step up infiltration under cover of fire. Pakistan can also be expected to target our villages with artillery/mortar fire if the situation escalates.   

Pervez Musharraf, before becoming army chief, gave a presentation to the Pakistan Defence Ministry saying at the time of Independence, annual per-capita water available in Pakistan was 6000 cusecs, which was now down to 1000. He advocated this a strong reason to capture Kashmir  (https://indiandefencereview.com/south-asia-nuclear-war-periodic-kitty-gossip/). This is why Pakistan has been objecting to hydel projects on the rivers under IWT.

India has “officially” held the IWT “in abeyance” – not suspended it as the media would want us to believe. Does our hierarchy know the difference between holding the treaty in abeyance and suspending it? Brahma  Chellaney points out that instead of holding the IWT “in abeyance”,  India has the option to legally exit from the IWT, and international law also provides for a fundamental change in circumstances as a valid reason for treaty withdrawal. Brahma Chellaney points out that instead of holding the IWT “in abeyance”,  India has the option to legally exit from the IWT, and international law also provides for a fundamental change in circumstances as a valid reason for treaty withdrawal (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10161736628614775&id=674879774).

The Jal Shakti minister CR Paatil says India would not allow a “single drop” of water to flow into Pakistan (https://www.wionews.com/india-news/india-to-stop-indus-water-flow-to-pakistan-increase-capacity-of-dams-sources-9002225), which is political jingoism because we don’t have requisite diversions and reservoirs to hold all the water back and creating such a system will take years/decades. Has India done enough in this regard all these years, even after the Modi announced suspension of IWT in 2019? But yes, timing of holding back or releasing water to damage Pakistan’s crops is possible even now to some extent. In addition is flooding, which India has done in Jhelum River (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/indias-sudden-jhelum-water-release-sparks-panic-in-pok/articleshow/120652831.cms). Pakistan is feeling the heat, as is evident from Pakistan halting its Cholistan canal project    (https://theprint.in/world/pakistan-halts-cholistan-canal-project-amid-indus-treaty-pause-why-it-faces-a-dual-crisis/2603081/).  Why are we not legally exiting the IWT once for all? Is the intention to eventually revert to business as usual, the government wary of spending more on diverting the waters, or worried about repercussions on our water-sharing agreement with Bangladesh and water data-sharing with China?

Similarly, why the luxury of downsizing the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi from 52 to 30? The only apparent reason is so 30 of our diplomats stay on in Rawalpindi? Why not shut the High Commission for the time being (as we shut our Embassy in Kabul) or prune it down to 3-4?

Amid TV visuals of houses of some terrorists demolished in J&K, Sanjay Seth, Minister of State (Defence), is echoing Modi’s warning that terrorists will be punished. But along with the sabre rattling from both sides, New Delhi must be prepared for heightened terrorist actions, including Al Qaeda and ISIS, with Pakistan the conduit. Interestingly, Trump had said a few years back, “Former US President Barack Obama is the founder of ISIS and Hillary Clinton is the co-founder”.

While the world is talking about India-Pakistan, two nuclear nations, on the brink of war, war is really not an option. Pakistan can’t afford it economically while India can’t risk it with the ongoing standoff with China along the entire Line of Control (LAC) and the volatile situations in Myanmar and Bangladesh. Moreover, the boorish and feudal maneuverings of India’s ruling political party brought down the army’s manpower by over 1,00,000, in addition to forcing the crass Agniveer system drastically cutting down basic recruit training (https://taazakhabarnews.com/from-reform-to-crisis-the-agnipath-schemes-unintended-consequences/). To top this, are successive annual defence budgets, which turn out to be negative in actual terms. The expanding threats surrounding India are of little concern, with Prime Minister Modi reiterating this is not the era of war and this is the era of Buddha, not Yuddha. A post on Meta points out that Modi still believes his small steps on IWT will change the behaviour of rabid Pakistan (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10161744679659775&id=674879774).

Our politicians fail to understand that 4-5 terrorists in the instant case struck India’s soul and turned J&K’s situation upside down, one car-bomber in 2019 did the same in Pulwama, so on and so-forth. This is the era of dirty war, which demands an equally dirty response. Yet, the Modi government has undertaken one two-day cross-border surgical strike and a few minutes standoff air strike at Balakot in the past 11 years? Pakistan recognizes lack of India’s political resolve to strike at the roots of terrorism in POK/Pakistan.   

What happens now? The cross-border firing may escalate to artillery duels, with Pakistan targeting our Hindu-predominant villages. There are calls of using BrahMos missiles at the LeT in Muridke and the 42 terrorist launch pads, while Russia is offering long-range missiles. But government must weigh the pros and cons of a limited war vis-à-vis giving a ‘dirty war’ response all along the LoC and border with Pakistan. Can we learn from what Israel just did to a port in Iran? We need to do in POK/Pakistan what Pakistan is doing to India, which we can. Liberation of Balochistan and Sindh to cut off sea access of Pakistan should be our priority (https://m.rediff.com/news/column/pahalgam-terror-attack-liberation-of-balochistan-and-sindh-must-top-the-agenda/20250425.htm). A modus operandi and time-table should be set for this (as part of a national security strategy) and the US taken into confidence, given that it would disrupt the CPEC and the US may be interested to deploy troops in Gwadar.

At the same time, India needs to get its own house in order. Newspaper says Gujarat has rounded up 1024 illegal Bangladeshis – did this nautanki have to wait for the Pahalgam massacre? What about the lakhs and lakhs of illegals in India? Can we move beyond political optics at least now? TV news showing the 6-7 terrorist houses demolished in J&K for the past two days looks like someone has plundered your house, you break his umbrella and pray for rain? The news about Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh expelling Kashmiri students from educational institutions is disconcerting – do we want to breed more terrorism? Do we have a holistic Pakistan policy at all?   

The author is a veteran of the Indian Army. Views expressed are personal.