In the period from the abrogation of Article 370 on August 05, 2019, onwards Pakistan sponsored/supported terrorism in J&K did reduce but never stopped. It reduced because New Delhi took several actions against both political leaders and separatists in the region, which included arrests, detentions, and restrictions on communication and movement. But it did not at all amount to disabling all the ‘overground workers’ (OGWs/separatists- those who support Pakistani terrorists), because attacks by Pak army inducted terrorists continued at a lower rate in the Valley and spread to Jammu by 2023. Not only were there still enough OGWs/separatists around to assist Pakistani terrorists, but were increased to be used in Jammu division, as indicated by two terrorist attacks of 20 April at Bhatta Durian, Poonch and 05 May 2023 at Kandi forest, Rajouri, as well as some earlier ones in 2022.
After the Elections in J&K, the extent of attacks by Pak army sponsored terrorists increased considerably, stretching from Poonch and Rajouri, to Kathua, Udhampur and Doda. Another important development was that Pak army’s elite SSG (Special Service Group) had been added to the terrorists to “enhance the effectiveness” of the attacks. This was an area which had been declared as ‘militancy-free’ in 2010 or so.
The heinous April 24, 2025, attack on Hindu tourists in Pahalgam was clear proof that the there was no dearth of OGWs to support the Pakistani terrorists, who came there, attacked and escaped effectively. Were there no J&K police or central armed police forces constabulary deployed in and around tourist-heavy Pahalgam because the State government did not think it necessary or was this a deliberate lapse? After all that happened on April 24, 2025, in Pahalgam, this question needs to be asked and this lapse needs to be investigated thoroughly.
The April 24 Pahalgam attack was also an act of “economic warfare” as one English daily put it. Will it teach Kashmiri shopkeepers an important lesson that they must not support Pakistani terrorists or turn a blind eye to their activities but report them so that they can be caught?
The Kashmiri Pandits/Hindus who survived the genocide / ethnic cleansing which began in the late 1990s by escaping, some of who this author has interacted with, cannot but help recall and lament that it is the same Kashmiri political leaders who presided over various massacres and exoduses who got elected again in 2024, as a result of a naïve/ignorant/indifferent judiciary, who insisted that elections must be held in J&K at a time when (a) security against Pak army supported terror could be improved and made foolproof, (b) all OGWs/separatists were fully disabled and (c) an effective deradicalisation programme should have been initiated in an organised way.
While the National Investigation Agency stepped up its drive of investigating and apprehending many OGWs/ separatists in many parts of the Kashmir Valley, the latest move by New Delhi is to deploy 20,000 more Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in J&K and simultaneously raise the numerical strength of this force by the same amount, which is a significant decision. In addition, the Army conducting some training drills and missile firing in the Valley may be an indication of a possible resumption of Op Sindoor.
For five years since the abrogation of Article 370 and till the J&K Elections, a narrative built by the government of great improvement in peace did not work at all because terrorist attacks continued. In fact, there was a marked increase in targeting of Kashmiri Pandits/Hindus and non-Kashmiris who were hesitatingly coming to settle in J&K.
There have also been some very disturbing reports from sources not daring to identify themselves about how some recent entrants known/confirmed to be closely associated with terrorists have been facilitated to settle in J&K.
A sharp and wide look and incidents like Pahalgam leave no doubt that radicalisation of non-Hindu Kashmiris- to put it less bluntly- is not something which can be simply switched off. It will need to be worked upon meaningfully and relentlessly by a process of reminding /re-educating the Kashmiri Muslim community, that they are fortunate to be under the Indian government and that they must not get swayed by the highly misleading slogans of Azadi (freedom) or to get convinced to throw in their lot with Pakistan. They need to be diligently worked upon to convince them how pathetic their life will become under a rogue state like Pakistan.
The author a strategic affairs analyst and former spokesperson, Defence Ministry and Indian Army, can be contacted at wordsword02@gmail.com, https://www.linkedin.com/in/anil-bhat-70b94766/ and @ColAnilBhat8252