The Russia-India-China (RIC) troika, mooted by Russia in late 1990s, aimed to enhance financial cooperation and democratizing financial architecture, multipolar world order, address regional-global geopolitical challenges, maintain sovereignty and territorial integrity while opposing regime change from abroad. RIC countries have engaged in joint military exercises and diplomatic coordination on global issues, including climate change, green energy etc. In a virtual meet of RIC foreign secretaries on June 23, 2020; India projected the necessity to respect international law and interests of partners, without mentioning China’s aggression in Ladakh, while Russia said India and China don’t need help to sort out differences (https://www.sanskritiias.com/current-affairs/russia-india-china-trailateral-meet).
Of late, Russia is actively advocating for the resumption of the RIC. China firmly supports Russia’s initiative, saying trilateral cooperation benefits the interests of the three countries and contributes to regional and global stability. However, India remains non-committal, with the MEA stating a mutually convenient date for a meeting would be publicised when agreed upon.
Above is in backdrop of geopolitical events, like: tariff tsunami unleased by Donald Trump and America’s sanction regime upsetting global supply-chains; Chinese help to Pakistan during Operation ‘Sindoor’ and only Israel siding with India to blame Pakistan for the Pahalgam massacre; Trump hosting Pak army chief, plus crypto and mineral deals with Pakistan; CIA-engineered regime change in Bangladesh; ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza; US-Israel hostilities with Iran; US-China rare earth elements (REE) deal; Trump viewing BRICS an enemy of America; Trump’s ultimatum to Russia for ending the war.
Some writeups in our media say China’s support for RIC indicates Beijing is mellowing because of India’s economic rise, which is naïve. China is far ahead in military and economic prowess and holds all aces. There is no change in the deployments in Ladakh; with no chance of any pullback. In 2024, China reclaimed its position as India’s top trading partner, surpassing the United States after a two-year hiatus. Bilateral trade reached USD 118.4 billion, a 4% increase from 2023. China continues to benefit by about USD 100 billion annually through India-China bilateral trade. To say China has mellowed because it can’t afford a two-front war is also foolish. Notably, China calls the Tibet issue a thorn in India-China relations, cautioning that reincarnation and succession of the Dalai Lama is inherently an internal affair of China.
Converse to China’s perceived mellowing. Beijing continues pressuring India with moves like; restricting REE exports, plus stopping fertilizers and tunnel-boring machines for India’s bullet train project; Chinese engineers and technicians’ pullout from Foxconn in India as well as Apple India; China-Pakistan-Bangladesh troika; China-Pakistan-Afghanistan for extending the CPEC into Afghanistan and beyond; move for a new regional grouping to possibly replace SAARC.
Trump appears capitulated to America’s deep state; promise to end the Ukraine war immediately on assuming presidency have evaporated. Trump has questioned Japan and South Korea how they would act when China invades Taiwan. He will ask India the same because he views India, Japan and South Korea proxies to fight China; same way Ukraine is being used to fight Russia.
Trump has announced 25% tariffs on India, effective August 1, 2025, in addition to penalties for arms/oil trade with Russia; backstabbing despite India’s support to him in elections – even Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding the rally the show like Ab Ki Baar Trump Sarkar on American soil in Donald Trump’s presence. Trump should acknowledge India has reduced defence imports from Moscow, but it cannot “switch off” defence and energy partnership with Russia which are crucial for India’s economy and security. Also, India's imports of US arms have reached nearly USD 15 billion in past seven years. Is he berserk over reports India is keen on Russia’s S-500 AD missile system, while pressuring India to import F-35s squadrons. There is also the US push for strengthening US-India REE cooperation (https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/strengthening-us-india-rare-earth-elements-cooperation).
India is veering towards more open dealing with Beijing; given that the US (as always) is an unreliable partner. India is a huge market for Chinese goods, while India needs China’s raw materials and technological cooperation. New Delhi has opened tourist visa for Chinese nationals, as well as Chinese investments in the electronics sector. Niti Aayog proposes allowing Chinese firms to acquire up to 24% stake in Indian firms without prior approval. This has also been indicated by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Multiple proposals are underway for Chinese FDI in India’s electronic sector, including joint ventures and REE solutions (https://www.cnbctv18.com/business/electronics-manufacturing-india-to-have-greater-engagement-with-china-cant-avoid-19643691.htm).
In 2025, China's share of global economy is estimated at 19.8%, while India's is around 10.0%; combined share being significantly contributing to global economic growth. Also, India and China combined make up approximately 36% of the world's population. Is this viewed adverse by America’s deep state, as an Asian Century clashes with a US-led unipolar world, which must be sabotaged. That’s why Ashley J Tellis of Carnegie Endowment spews venom against India’s support for a multipolar world
Yes, India is relatively weak vis a vis the US and China, but China too was relatively weak vis a vis the US but is catching up. We will catch up with China too in due course. India “yearning” for multipolarity? How? We are building strong ties with the US, EU, individual… https://t.co/1y81Eq0gVd
— Kanwal Sibal (@KanwalSibal) June 18, 2025
RIC could have included Iran for obvious advantages, but that is not possible because India drastically cut off oil imports from Iran during Trump’s first presidency and Iran has strongly condemned the Indian media for fake and fabricated coverage of the recent Iran-Israel war (https://clarionindia.net/iran-rebukes-indian-media-for-biased-iran-israel-war-coverage-urges-journalistic-integrity/).
The US undermined India’s LCA Tejas program by delaying supply of GE’s F-404 aero-engines. But a stark warning is evident from Microsoft Corporation suspending India’s ‘Nayara Energy’ access to tools, data, and licensed software (https://www.businesstoday.in/industry/story/now-think-if-it-was-a-hot-war-situation-ex-army-officers-wake-up-call-as-microsoft-blocks-nayara-486795-2025-07-29#google_vignette), implications of which in war have been indicated by veteran Colonel Hunny Bakshi. For that matter, India’s must acknowledge potential of China’s cyber prowess (https://www.spsmai.com/experts-speak/?id=1598&q=Chinas-Damning-Cyber-Prowess). Ironically, our dependence on Chinese electronic components and machinery has placed us in crosshairs of China’s cyber spy-sabotage network (https://www.spsmai.com/experts-speak/?id=1582&q=Chinas-Cyber-Spy-Sabotage-Network).
Truth is hard to swallow but it is about time we look ourselves hard in the mirror. We are in this state because we have not done so. Our slogans of self-sufficiency are patchy in every segment. More so because we haven’t defined a national security strategy (NSS) 78 years after independence. The CDS says we don’t need a written NSS, but it is not a poem that can be memorized. Most of our national hierarchy, if not all, views national security as military security, whereas, military security is just one part. Lack of NSS is one reason why despite having third largest global RRE reserves, we haven’t yet begun production of RREs (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/op-eds/weaponizing-rare-earth-elements/).
Ashley Tellis penned decades ago “India getting subjected to terrorism suits many”, without mentioning it suits the US also. Going gaga over America branding TRF a global terrorist organization, fails to acknowledge the Pahalgam massacre was with CIA’s knowledge or greenlighted by them (https://www.thecitizen.in/opinion/the-trf-chirrup-1163974). Friendships shouldn’t imply abdication. India-Israel friendship is decades old, but Israel branded Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) a terrorist organization only after Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023. Israeli aircraft landing in Pakistan indicates Israeli nukes likely stored in Pakistan – same as America’s. The US-Isreal bond is much stronger than India-Israel, and the US has sinister designs for India/South Asia. With Israel weaponizing hunger in Gaza, France, the UK and Canada have come out in open support of Palestine. But India is mum – have we forgotten British colonialism exacerbated famine conditions in India, killing thousands through starvation?
Decisions related to national security cannot be based on ‘political’ considerations and vote-bank considerations. Same should be the case in defence procurements, rather than taking cover behind Army/Navy/Air Force want this or that; while decisions are made by the bureaucracy on which the polity depends. Starlink cover in India, with attendant security implications, is despite Jio and Bharati Airtel in the race. NavIC (Navigation with India Constellation) was launched only to provide “regional” cover. But today only four of its seven planned satellites are operational. Why did we not plan our own GPS all these years when China’s BeiDou has global coverage – ISRO only needed directions and the funds.
The sponsored media response to Trump’s tariffs barrage on India is “it could be worse” (sic). Both the US and China are bullies, who need to be stood up to and looked into the eye. China maintains the border problem should be kept separate from bilateral relations – no matter how much we try to paint otherwise to impress the public at home. Doesn’t the US need India more for its Indo-Pacific plans and huge market than India needing the US? We need to see through every foreign move and its long-term implications to prevent reacting to situations when the occur. Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharama Oli is visiting India first time in his premiership, 10 months after he visited China. His visit is in the backdrop of calls for return of monarchy in Nepal (engineered by foreign intelligence) which had no chance of succeeding. Oli will promote the China-Nepal-India Economic Corridor (CNIEC), proposed by Beijing in 2018. India will naturally not join China’s BRI, but China will be ready to use India’s road-rail connectivity via Nepal to Bangladesh where it built the largest submarine base in Asia. The CNIEC needs to be viewed together with China establishing an airbase in northern Bangladesh and its implications for India’s northeast.
Finally, India will need to navigate contentious waters for the coming 15-20 years and things may get worse. We need to invest in full-scale defence modernisation that remains patchy, as well as prepare for external shocks to our economy. The two-day discussion in Parliament over Operation ‘Sindoor’ indicates we continue to deflect ground realities – truth lies between the mud-slinging from both sides. If we don’t adhere to ‘India First’ instead of focussing on political personalities, we are in for bad times. There is no reason why India should hesitate from RIC meetings – unless the political hierarchy fears America. Why is RIC treated different from the Quad?
The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
