According to the latest SIPRI report, India’s nuclear warhead count has gone up to 190 as of January 2026, India has deployed at least 12 nuclear warheads, and may be deploying nuclear warheads on an SSBN conducting patrols, having two SSBN’s operational since August 2024. The report calls this a major departure from past practice of keeping nuclear warheads and delivery platforms separate or placing them with operational forces. It further states that China has deployed 34 nuclear warheads, and Pakistan has 170 nuclear warheads but none are deployed. The report ignores Pakistan’s Babur-3 SLCM that can deliver nuclear warheads up to 450-km, and Pakistan’s dual-capable/hybrid deployment of conventional submarines carrying nuclear warheads.
Under the 2015 China-Pakistan USD 5 billion deal to build eight Hangor-class AIP-equipped diesel-electric submarines, four each are being built in China and Pakistan. The first submarine has been commissioned in Pakistan’s Navy and Pakistan plans patrols from Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal with these submarines. Turkey has led mid-life modernization of Pakistan Navy's Agosta 90B-class (Khalid-class) submarines.
China operates six Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs and has launched two more hulls reportedly for more advanced SSBNs. China’s existing 620 nuclear warheads are growing by roughly 100 annually - projected total 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035, China is rapidly building ICBM silo and launch pads in remote regions including Xinjiang. China has an effective nuclear triad and appears to be shifting from its minimal deterrence and no-first-use towards a launch on warning posture.
The US and Russia have about 3,700 and 4,400 warheads respectively, France 290 and Britain 225. Israel is estimated to have 90 nuclear warheads, plus, fissile material to produce 100-200 more, and a nuclear triad comprising Jericho-series ballistic missiles, F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft, and Dolphin-class submarines equipped with cruise missiles.
At one stage Donald Trump wanted to nuke Iran but was advised against it. Analysts warned that in such a case China-Russia could nuke Israel. Trump has watered down his demand from Iran to hand over all its Uranium, to agreeing not to develop nuclear weapons. Iran wasn’t developing nuclear weapons, which was also endorsed by US DNI Tulsi Gabbard. But Trump’s promises of ceasefires are hollow; as witnessed in Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine.
Benjamin Netanyahu has rubbished the US-Iran MoU and US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee says Israel has biblical claim over the entire Middle East; indicating Washington’s duplicity. The world is witness to Libya’s destruction after giving its nuclear program, the US lying about Iraq’s nuclear program to invade that country and North Korea showing the finger to Washington by going for exponential expansion of its nuclear arsenal and rejecting international inspections.
Feigned blindness and nuclear proliferation by the P5 are decades old, few examples of which are as under:
- China nuclearized Pakistan (abetted by the US) and North Korea. In 1986, Chinese scientists began assisting Pakistan with the enrichment of weapons-grade uranium. China provided Tritium gas to Pakistan for 10 nuclear weapons, 5,000 specially designed ring magnets and co-opted Pakistani scientists in a nuclear test at China’s Lop Nor in 1989.
- Mordechai Vanunu, former Israeli nuclear technician, told the British press in 1986 that Israel developed nuclear weapons in the early 1960s in conjunction with France. France admits that in 1949 Israeli scientists were invited to the Saclay nuclear research facility for collaboration and sharing nuclear knowhow especially from those with knowledge from the US Manhattan Project that resulted in nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
- American investigative journalist Robert Parry wrote in New York Times on October 2, 2013, that Israel’s war plans against Iran include use of low-yield nuclear bombs to shatter Iran’s hardened sites. Ambiguity whether Israel will not be the first to ‘use’ or ‘introduce’ nuclear weapons in the Middle East has continued despite the Eshkol-Comer MoU between Israel and US of March 1965.
- Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation appears centred on boosting Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program. China virtually gave the nuclear bomb to Pakistan, sold nuclear capable Silkworm Missiles to Saudi Arabia in the 1980s, and Pakistan is ready to provide nukes to Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia had warned the US special envoy in 2009 that if Iran crossed the nuclear threshold, Saudi Arabia will get nuclear weapons.
- Operation ‘Sindoor’ has exposed that American nuclear weapons are stored in Pakistan.
- The Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Defence Arrangement (SPDA), engineered by Washington, together with calls for Gulf States to join the Abraham Accords, appears to be Trump’s next plan to take over Iran in conjunction with Israel.
Tsutomo Hata, Japan’s Prime Minister before demitting office in June 1994 acknowledged in the Diet that Japan has the know-how to develop nuclear weapons. In those days, Japanese used to call US troop presence in Japan paid security guards, positioned to ensure Japan doesn’t go nuclear. Most countries (including Japan, South Korea and some others) maintain a certain quantity of nuclear weapon-grade fissile material under the pretext of research and development. With Britain now supplying Uranium to Ukraine, what is the guarantee the West is not planning to nuclearize Kiev, given its aim to strategically defeat Russia?
Lack of American security guarantees under Trump has spurred US allies to look elsewhere. Poland is actively looking to build autonomous nuclear capabilities and is in talks with France to join a European nuclear deterrent program. Poland’s President Andrzej Duda has formally requested for positioning of US nuclear weapons in Poland. Germany has initiated discussions with Europe - security talks with France and Britain to ensure robust nuclear protection. Japan’s reliance on US deterrence is under scrutiny with fears Washington might scale back its foreign commitments and China stating US troops in Japan are legitimate targets; public and academic debates in Japan are increasingly contemplating the need for an independent nuclear arsenal.
Is nuclearization of space in the offing? Germany's Space Command chief, Major General Michael Traut has warned that Russia could disable up to a third of all LEO satellites in orbit by deploying a nuclear device in space. If that be true, surely other nuclear powers are also working on deploying nuclear weapons in space.
The above leads to multiple questions, to include the following:
- Is the world headed for more nuclear nations (declared or untested) because of Trump’s idiotic actions?
- Will Israel use nukes to target Iran’s hardened facilities?
- Pete Hefseth’s ravings are like a chihuahua, but isn’t Trump faking anger against Netanyahu when he dare not stop Israel when the ‘Congressional Israel Allies Caucus’ has overwhelming majority in US Congress and Senate, and major pro-Israel political action committees like AIPAC maintain strong financial support and endorsements across both major parties (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/bamboozling-west-asia/)?
- With China planning a defence pact with Iran, is Trump planning another China visit to signal Xi Jinping can take Taiwan in exchange for not interfering in Iran?
- Would a nuclear-capable Iran provide stability to the Middle East?
- And finally, should India adopt a launch on warning posture, given the China-Pakistan nexus, both America and China backing Pakistan, and the US eager for an India-China war?
The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
More on nuclear policies:
Finland Aligns With NATO Nuclear Policy: https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/finland-aligns-with-nato-nuclear-policy/
The Return of the Nuclear Deterrence Challenge in Europe: https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/the-return-of-the-nuclear-deterrence-challenge-in-europe/
Jake Sullivan’s last minute nuclear visit to India: https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/jake-sullivans-last-minute-nuclear-visit-to-india/
India’s Fast Breeder Reactor Success Strengthens Energy Security Vision: https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/indias-fast-breeder-reactor-success-strengthens-energy-security-vision/
