Mothballing Manipur

On February 13, 2025, President's rule was imposed in Manipur, after Chief Minister N Biren Singh resigned on February 9, putting the state assembly having a tenure till 2027, under suspended animation. Biren Singh was forced to resign by the Centre to save his skin, why so and why the Centre adores him, was covered in these columns earlier (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/op-eds/continuing-manipur-charade/). Biren Singh’s politico-terrorism and his ultra-right-wing ideology has created a massive Meitei-Kuki (read Hindu-Christian) ethnic divide that looks almost unbridgeable. He has been using Arambai Tenggol (AT) and Manipur Police as his private army for ethnic cleansing of the tribals. Over 260 persons have been killed, thousands injured and 70,000 rendered homeless in the ethnic violence that rocked the state resulting from the political move to bring all the Meitei into the reserve scheduled category in April 2003 and the bloodbath that followed in May 2023. The ‘Manipur Tapes’, which exposes the ugly face of Biren Singh, appear sidelined. At best these tapes may be dubbed AI-generated. With his proficiency in ethnic cleansing and the influence he continues to wield in Manipur, speculation is Biren Singh may even get placed as deputy to Union Home Minister Amit Shah. 

Expansion and arming of the Arambai Tenggol (AT) is the brainchild of Leishem Sanajoba; AT is headed by his erstwhile driver Korounganba Khuman, who is reportedly on the radar of the National Investigation Agency (NIA).  Two cases against Khuman are among the eight cases related to the Manipur violence that were shifted from Imphal to Guwahati. President’s Rule in Manipur hasn’t impacted the AT, who  are dead set on continuing ethnic cleansing of indigenous tribes. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) has been extended to the entire Manipur, except for 13 police station areas where the AT, having 7,000 - 8,000 armed militants, remains active.

Violence erupted on June 7, 2025, for the umpteenth time in Manipur when security forces picked up Asem Kanan Singh, a suspended Manipur Police head constable and self-styled ‘army chief’ of AT, arrested for his role in the 2023 Manipur violence. Four other AT members were also detained for questioning. AT members clashed with security forces when they went to make the arrests, firing gunshots and torching vehicles of security forces. Many people, including security personnel, were injured. Prohibitory orders were issued and the internet suspended. AT declared a 10-day shutdown but called it off after four days.

Under Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla, arms recoveries are taking place, but these include country-made weapons, as well as weapons other than those looted from police armories. The Meitei and the tribals continue to hold sophisticated arms and have supply routes for the same. On the night of June 13-14, joint teams of the Army, Assam Rifles, Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) and Manipur Police recovered 328 weapons (151 x SLR rifle, 65 x INSAS rifles, 73 rifles of other kinds, 5 x carbines, 2 x MP-5 guns) and a large cache of ammunition, explosives and warlike stores from five valley districts; Imphal East, Imphal West, Bishnupur, Kakching and Thoubal.

The Centre reportedly held a meeting on June 5, 2025, with the leaders of four Kuki militant groups of Manipur under the Suspension of Operation (SoO) agreement at the Assam Police’s Special Branch headquarters at Kahilipara in Guwahati, Assam. The Meitei, however, want the SoO to be cancelled. There are also reports that in talks with the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), the Kuki-Zo have agreed to relocate seven camps close to Meitei areas to other areas in the tribal belt (https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/govt-kuki-zo-groups-reach-understanding-to-relocate-camps-to-tribal-areas-101750217070446.html).  

It is being said that lasting peace in Manipur is unlikely as long as Chin militants from Myanmar continue crossing over and taking refuge, which is a misnomer. The Chin from Myanmar are crossing into Mizoram, not Manipur, whereas Manipur-origin militants in Myanmar support both the Valley-based Meitei and the tribals in the hill region. Manipur MLA Thaounaojam Shyamkumar Singh forced the release of 12 KYKL armed terrorists rounded up by the Army in Itham Village on June 24, 2023; for using these terrorists to kill the Kuki and Naga in Manipur on orders of Chief Minister Biren Singh (https://www.thecitizen.in/opinion/manipur-experiment-a-toxic-turn-for-the-north-east-951756)?

The biggest challenge for the Centre and the State is how to bridge the massive mistrust and ethnic divide methodically crafted through the state-sponsored ethnic cleansing under Biren Singh’s leadership. `In April 2025, the Centre deputed 16 IPS officers from the 2024 batch to Manipur State for addressing the crisis. But this is a miniscule step in the gigantic effort that is needed to normalize the situation. Take the case of the two air hostesses from Manipur (one Meitei and one Kuki) who died in the tragic Air India plane crash at Ahmedabad recently. The body of the Meitei airhostess is being flown to Imphal. But the body of the Kuki airhostess can’t be flown to Imphal (the only airport in Manipur); her body is being flown to Dimapur in Nagaland and then transported by road to her home in Manipur.

Isn’t this a shocking state of affairs? We can’t stop bragging about being a rising superpower, but the MHA can’t fly the body of the Kuki airhostess to Imphal for fear of getting lynched by the Meitei (read AT) despite all the security forces. If it was a Bollywood movie, Biren Singh could have guaranteed safe passage on receiving the right fee. It is for reasons like this that the Kuki National Organisation (KNO), an umbrella body of 17 Kuki groups in Manipur, wants a separate administrative division for tribals.

The situation in Manipur is improving is what the media wants us to believe but the ground realities remain a stark reminder of the incompetence of the state machinery and neglect by the Centre. A bigger shock like the Pahalgam massacre, which broke the illusion of J&K’s return to normalcy, can occur anytime in Manipur. If the terror threat in J&K remains with Pakistan army chief Asim Munir sitting in President Donald Trump’s lap, the US is also busy in establishing a buffer state in Myanmar’s Rakhine State that would retard India’s Act East Policy (AEP).

The lackadaisical national stance towards a sensitive border state like Manipur has been more of a policy of drift – hoping that the wounds would heal by themselves. But continued marginalisation of Manipur (despite the chest-thumping about developing the northeast region) indicates sole focus on optics and political consolidation for a regime aligned with the ruling party at the Centre. Social media posts indicate a seer having warned Prime Minister Narendra Modi that visiting Manipur would be far more dangerous for him than holding a press conference. But his absence in Manipur does exemplify the policy of drift by the Centre – more conspicuous with Modi having already made 89 foreign trips as prime minister, visiting 75 countries. For the government, ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pandits from Kashmir Valley and promises of their return are only means to draw political mileage with Bollywood movies like ‘Kashmir Files’. Same goes for Manipur, where the Centre is immune to the sufferings of Manipur. Has any state in India (other than J&K) suffered like Manipur - over 260 killed, thousands injured and 70,000 rendered homeless in a span of two years? The NSA has failed to define a national security strategy despite being officially tasked to do so in 2019, but what is our roadmap for Manipur, if at all there is one? The Centre needs to seriously address the demands of all ethnic groups including the tribals; why are the Kuki observing May 3 as the separation day – doesn’t’ this require serious introspection?

Finally, is the Centre’s decision to fence the 1,643 km India-Myanmar border costing over Rs 31,000 crores, including the 398-km stretch adjoining Manipur. No doubt the MHA will make crores of rupees through this fencing and recurring repairs in the coming years. The thick foliage along the border doesn’t even allow 100 metres visibility by day. The India-Myanmar border is not fully settled and not fully demarcated. The troop density guarding the IB in Myanmar is nowhere close to our troop density guarding the LoC and IB in J&K. The Union Home Minister Amit Shah told the Parliament that 400-km of India-Bangladesh border cannot be fenced because the West Bengal government does not allow it (https://www.indiatoday.in/programme/india-first/video/amit-shah-accuses-bengal-government-of-obstructing-border-fencing-trinamool-hits-back-2700256-2025-03-27); eunuch approach in mighty India! Will the Chin and Naga on both sides of the IB allow fencing of the India-Myanmar border? Yet, the fencing must be done for the money-making, in addition to the narcotics smuggling controlled by the politicians.

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.