Iran Underestimated

US President Donald Trump’s Operation ‘Midnight Hammer’ to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, using B-2 Spirit stealth bombers and dropping12 GBU-57 bunker busting bombs in a 37-hour operation was covered in these columns recently, with Trump claiming that “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated” (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/op-eds/fucklers-hammer/). It was also covered that contrary to Trump’s claim, the IAEA reports says that the US Air Force was careful not to hit reactors at a key Iranian nuclear facility (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/israel-iran-conflict-satellite-images-suggest-us-avoided-hitting-nuclear-reactors-at-key-facility/articleshow/122035895.cms#:~:text=For%20all%20of%20the%20destruction,at%20a%20key%20research%20facility.). The efficacy of Operation ‘Midnight Hammer’ and Trump’s claim of completely destroying Iran’s nuclear capability is now under the lens. Additionally, one B-2 Spirit bomber returning from the Iran bombing made an emergency landing in Hawaii (https://www.eurasiantimes.com/all-b-2-bombers-not-back-to-the-usaf-base-us-stealth-aircraft-used-as-decoys-for-iran-strikes-stranded-in-hawaii/?amp), Iran has reportedly downed

an Israeli F-35 fighter jet, and one F-35 jet of the British Navy that made an emergency landing in Kerala (India) is still stranded there.

But before addressing the efficacy of US strikes on Iran, readers must carefully listen to the following Intel Roundtable,

which brings out the following: IAEA had no proof Iran was pursuing a bomb and US intel had no other lead than of the IAEA; Iran’s missile power was not appreciated; Iran inflicted massively damage on Israel’s west-backed military-industrial complex (details in the clip) – which Netanyahu is trying to hide even from the Israeli population; Netanyahu did his best to rope in the US for war against Iran; ultimately, it was Netanyahu who asked Trump for a ceasefire with Iran; Trump obliged in his usual gung-ho fashion; Tulsi Gabbard or anyone in Pentagon has no alternative but to tow Trump’s line.

A veteran-strategist writes: with practically no Iranian Air Force and looking at the amount of destruction caused by missiles, the era of super costly 5G - 6G aircraft is nearing its end; if aircraft flying in own territory are to launch BVR air-to-ground missiles, lower-cost aircraft could also do that job; air-to-ground missiles from fighter aircraft typically carry 50-150 kg warhead compared to 1.5 ton warhead of Iranian ballistic missiles; Iranian ballistic missiles cost about USD 100,000 a piece compared to a F-35 costing USD 100 million, besides, the F-35 needs 14-hours maintenance for every one-hour flying time; no wonder Israel was hammered.

During Op ‘Sindoor’ when Indian BrahMos missiles hit the Nur Khan Air Base (under US control) in Pakistan, as well as Kirana Hills, movement of anti-radiation American aircraft was noticeable, since American nukes are stored in close proximity. But no anti-radiation activity was observed when the US and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear sites. This was evidence enough that Iran’s nuclear stockpile was intact.    

According to Richard Nephew, Senior Research Scholar (Columbia University) and Adjunct Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a leaked US intel report estimates Israel’s Op ‘Rising Lion’ and America’s Op ‘Midnight Hammer’ added just a few months to Iran’s breakout time. Israeli and American assessments generally support the idea that the strikes set back Iran significantly, but they focus on general damage and offer little specificity about the effect on Iran’s breakout time. Does Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent highly enriched uranium exist and is accessible? Iranians placed much of their uranium deep underground to protect against US attacks; possibly sealing some tunnel entrances for shielding against bombings. It is also not known whether Iran still has centrifuges to enrich uranium to weapons grade. The Iranian government will also now make its efforts opaque than ever, even if it engages in diplomacy. Iran’s new timeline may therefore vary wildly. The country may never produce a weapon. Or it could produce one very quickly.

Jeffrey Lewis, Director, East Asia Non-proliferation Program at Middlebury Institute of International Studies (Monterey), told reports that Israel’s bombing campaign against Iran, even with US help looked anaemic and at best it would set Iran’s nuclear program back by several months, maybe a year if we were lucky

(https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/iran-us-israel-strikes-dia-bomb-facilities/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921). This report also points out a June 12 contentious meeting of IAEA’s Board of Governors that raised several issues but were forgotten in the follow up bombing campaign. Trump had decided to bomb Iran long back, irrespective of evidence – similar to Dubya Bush invading Iraq.

Before Op ‘Sindoor’, if India was unaware of American nukes stored close to Nur Khan Air Base and Kirana hills in Pakistan, it doesn’t mean the world (Iran included) didn’t know US nukes are stored in Pakistan, Turkey, Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands - are part of the NATO nuclear sharing agreement. And, with US nukes dug down in deep tunnels, why would Iran not do so, particularly when the US helped Pakistan acquire the Sunni-Islamic bomb but Shia Iran is in its crosshairs. Now of course, Trump is serenading Pakistan’s Asim Munir to help take out Iran.

America’s Massive Ordnance Penetrator, GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs, were dropped from high above the Earth by B-2 Spirit bombers, with graphics showing them ploughing a narrow channel deep beneath the ground around 60 meters and erupting in an illustrated explosion. However, Iran's most deeply buried uranium enrichment site at Fordo is beneath nearly 90 meters of rock. So the US strikes only did limited damage. According to Geoff Brumfiel, in medium-strength rock, the GBU-57 could only go around 7.9 meters (about 25 feet) beneath the earth — far short of the 60 meters claimed by the infographics. (https://www.npr.org/2025/06/25/nx-s1-5444307/did-america-bunker-busting-bombs-fail-reach-iran-nuclear-target). So, were the infographics manipulated to suit Trump’s claims?

There have been reports that Iran moved 400 kg uranium before the US strikes? However, Trump denies claim, says ‘too dangerous, too heavy’, calling satellite images misleading. Pete Hegseth backs him, but experts cite signs that up to 60 per cent enriched stockpile was quietly relocated (https://www.livemint.com/news/irans-400-kg-uranium-moved-before-us-strikes-donald-trump-denies-claim-says-too-dangerous-too-heavy/amp-11750949253631.html?s=03). The latest assessment is satellite imagery confirming that Iranian nuclear capabilities are bruised, not annihilated (https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/iran-us-israel-strikes-dia-bomb-facilities/). It is also assumed that Iran maintains secret nuclear facilities that were not targeted in the strike and remain operational. In addition to whatever centrifuges Iran already has, it also can make more.

CNN had reported hush-hush US-Iran talks about a USD 30 billion deal, to include removal of sanctions and bringing Iran back to the nuclear negotiation table (https://www.livemint.com/news/us-news/30-billion-deal-removal-of-sanctions-what-us-is-offering-iran-to-bring-tehran-back-to-nuclear-negotiation-table-11751020894260.html). This was certainly better than the video Trump showed to Kim Jong-Un during his first presidency for making North Korea great in exchange of Pyongyang giving up its nuclear program. Trump has now dismissed reports that the US is considering this USD 30 billion deal with Tehran. Iran, however, can see what the US did to Libya after Gaddafi gave up the nuclear program. Significantly, Iran was considered a few months away from the bomb for almost the past 20 years. Iran’s supreme leader had suspended the nuclear weapons program in 2003 – as was reported recently by Tulsi Gabbard, Director National Intelligence of the US. Have the US-Israeli strikes on Iran forced Tehran to go for the bomb?

Despite the hammering Pakistan received in Op ‘Sindoor’, Pakistan claiming and celebrating victory didn’t affect Trump, but Ayatollah Khamenei claiming that Iran had triumphed over Israel and the US in the 12-day war appears to have set Trump’s tail on fire, looking at his post on the Truth Social. Indications are that Trump has threatened to attack Iran again and Khamenei has said Iran is ready.  The video (https://youtu.be/Io5n3Xjs?si=LjK3MerSQz3rDxMB) covering this has been taken off the internet.

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.