Has Pakistan ‘completely lost its writ’ in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan?

"I swear by my heart that, at this moment there are five to seven groups in Balochistan who, if they retaliate, will be granted independence and the country will break once again" stated the Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman, a Member of the Pakistan Parliament.

Fazl-ur-Rehman has staunchly supported the Pakistan military against the Baloch freedom movement. Raising his concerns against the growing Baloch agitation, Fazl-ur-Rehman stressed that "If districts in Balochistan announce liberation, the UN will accept their independence and Pakistan will fall". While comparing the recent uptick in violence in KP and Balochistan to the Bangladesh Liberation war (1971), he stated that the recent developments may be an onset to yet another independent state carved from Pakistan.

Adding to his concerns, he further reiterated that "The UN Will Accept Their Independence and Pakistan will fall."

It is imperative to mention, the speech followed the renewed surge in violence Kurram region of northwest Pakistan. Apart from the sectarian violence, communal discord between the Sunni and Shiite communities, about 150 people have been reported to have been killed since November 2024.

“Sitting on scorched soil”, lamented Rehman who acknowledging Pakistan’s approach towards the disgruntled citizens of provinces of Balochistan, Sindh, KP, Pakistan-administered Kashmir: Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan proved to be futile.

Pakistan has often employed a heavy-handed approach to curb insurgencies without addressing the grievances of its citizens outside the Punjab province. Reports of several operations being conducted to curtail what Pakistan claims as terrorism, many citizens have succumbed to forced abductions, extrajudicial killings and have found themselves displaced from their homes. This is one of the factors which led to protests in Pakistan when its government announced that it would carry the operation Azm-e-Istekham. (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/articles/visual-composer-1548/)

Pakistan’s strengthening of its blasphemy laws has also led to arbitrary detainment of several individuals who were framed or accused without substantial evidentiary proof.

Most citizens believed the law discriminated against the non-Sunnis and was aimed at targeting the Shias, Hazaras or the minorities in the area. Due to the more stringent Blasphemy laws, protests broke out in the country from chants of “Chalo Delhi” to long marches in front of government buildings. (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/articles/pakistan-turkey-strategic-talks/)

It is vital to mention Pakistan has inherited most of its secular laws from the time of the British Raj before1947 however, over the years, the Sharia Law has taken a precedence over Pakistani law. There has been consistent amending of the constitution or the laws owing to a more Islamised approach. Although the government has Despite the government taking preventive   measures to counter any social problems, the human rights violations are prevalent. It is apparent that Pakistan’s legal code is largely concerned with tackling crime, matters of national security, and enforcing domestic peace that it seems to lack the sufficient protocols for the protection of individual rights.

To top it all, the rise in insurgency can be attributed to the presence of the Chinese workers who are involved with the CPEC. (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/articles/cpec-an-economic-blunder-or-part-of-chinas-expansion-plans-2/ ) Most insurgents view the Chinese as a colonial power who have been placed in their regions by the previous illegal occupier of their land, Pakistan. The apprehension of being marginalized in their own region while being subjugated by both nations as they plunder their lands of their natural resources and with nothing being offered to the natives are key factors for the insurgency. Most insurgents seek self determination and regard Pakistan to have forcefully attained their province.

True to the worries, Pakistan’s efforts to appease its iron brother China has led its military to deploy its officers to squash the rebellions and even relocating citizens from their villages to other areas. This was seen, when Maj Gen Ayman Bhilal of Pakistan army carried operation “Ground Zero” against the Baloch on the behest of the Chinese request. As a retaliation, the insurgents have continued to attack the Chinese nationals and investments, the Pakistan military personnel and establishment as well as several government offices and buildings. (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/articles/visual-composer-1439/)

In areas around the Durand line, the Pashtuns in the area do not acknowledge the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. They view it as an artificial entity which was imposed on them by Pakistan after the British rule. Due to these factors, there have been several cross border skirmishes between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Many Taliban  allied groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Hafiz Gul Bahadur group (HGB), Jundallah, Lashkar-e-Islam (LeI), TNSM, al-Qaeda, and their Central Asian allies such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, East Turkistan Movement, and Emirate of Caucasus have also waged war on Pakistan and can be seen aligning or interchanging, depending on the interest and their common hate for Pakistan.

The members of the Baloch Raji Ajohi Sangar (BRAS) (also known as the Baloch National Freedom Movement), is an alliance of  Baloch nationalist-separatist terrorist groups such as the Balochistan Republican Army (BRA), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) along with the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) and the Sindhudesh Liberation Army (SLA) have collaborated together to increase the capacity and frequency of their attacks while exchanging HUMINT.

There have been reports of the collaboration of BRAS with TTP as well.

According to Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban has also assisted the insurgent groups by providing safe havens in Afghanistan and by allowing them to operate from its soil.

To exacerbate the already faltering security measures by Pakistan, its mass exodus of Afghan refugees back to Afghanistan has also attracted international censure as well as disapproval from the Taliban government.

Since the recent attacks on the Chinese nationals in Pakistan, Beijing had requested a full scale operations against the militants. However, since the request was met in form of operation Azm e-Istehkam, China’s expectation of it being carried out on a large military scale like Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (2017) was not met. It is expected that Pakistan may relax its rules on private security firms so that the Chinese security firms may be installed in the areas.

Bearing all the factors in mind, the possibility of decline in insurgencies, terror activities or violence seems inconceivable, especially when Pakistan lives in a denial. Hence the MP Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman’s admission in the National Assembly confirming that Pakistan had lost control in Balochistan caused ripples internationally and domestically for Pakistan.