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The Israeli Offensive

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli PM [YouTube channel of IsraeliPM]
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli PM [YouTube channel of IsraeliPM]
Ivaylo Valchev
Written by Ivaylo Valchev

Israel have managed to turn the war into giving them access to a move which can define the future generations of the region.

The latest developments in the Middle East have created a situation, where if Israel decides to attack the vital facilities of Iran, the main funding and breeding force of armed fractions sowing instability and directly threatening Israel with annihilation, there will not be anybody to oppose. In fact, the situation seems to be favorable to nearly every side in the region. Iran appears to have put themselves in a position of an uncanny isolation, much like the calm before the storm, which has the potential to topple the entire regime. Will Israel attack Iran? There are very high chances that this can happen soon.

The speech by the Israeli Prime Minister on 12 December 2024 titled “Prime Minister Benjamin Netayahu's Message to the Iranian People” posted by the official YouTube handle of the Israel PM office was short and direct. In 2 min and 49 seconds he outlined the development of the military actions so far, the perspectives of the regime of the Islamic Republic and what life could be in the country without the current leadership. Needless to say, for a strategic master of perception warfare like him, it is not very hard to imagine why he adhered to these 3 main points as Sun Tzu described it more than 2,500 years ago: “Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”

The speech, however, was eerily similar to the speech he did exactly 1 month prior – on 12 November 2024, titled “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a direct message to the Iranian people”. That one was 3 min and 51 seconds and covered practically the same points. Before that, on 30 September 2024 he had another speech of similar length titled "The people of Iran should know - Israel stands with you" and that speech had a statement, which attracted massive attention: “When Iran is finally free and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think…”. Yesterday’s speech had a sentence “And I have no doubt that we will realize that future together – a lot sooner than people think”. Such statements, uttered only a couple of years ago, would be met with laughter and disbelief. Now, however, they can be perceived as a sign of confidence and possibly part of a greater plan.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli PM [YouTube channel of IsraeliPM]
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli PM [YouTube channel of IsraeliPM]

The Assad regime in Syria, among other problems and countless human rights violations, helped create the environment for the ongoing instability in Israel. Hezbollah, the Lebanese terrorist organization funded and trained by Iran, was an ally of Syria’s Ba’ath government, ruled by Assad’s family and played a key role in restoring former regime’s control over Syria post the 2011 civil war. The regime was almost toppled in 2011 by the Arab Spring, which had started in 2010 and many analysts thought that the fall was imminent.

Iran, however, mobilized massive forces and funding to reorganize Assad’s ground forces, which were relatively ineffective. Tens of thousands of fighters were sent, as well as many generals to organize and lead the ground forces. The rumors that Hezbollah and Iranian forces were coming to Syria started in late 2011 but on 16 September 2012 it was confirmed by the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), General Mohammed Ali Jafari, who stated publicly that IRGC Quds Force operatives were in Syria. Over the next months and years, they trained and reorganized Assad’s militias into National Defense Force (NDF), which went heavy handed on the local population. Thousands of civilians were killed to ensure compliance and relative stability for the regime.

Ground superiority needed to be backed by air superiority and Assad’s regime lacked that. For that, Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, was sent to Moscow on a covert trip 24-26 July, 2015 to discuss possible Russia involvement. Russia had already interests in the region, but Assad’s regime had to make sure that their role was inferior to Iran’s. The presence of frictions between Moscow and Teheran was evident by the expulsion of Russian bombers from Iran’s Hamadan airbase in August 2016. Iranian defense minister Hossein Dehqan complained that, “The Russians are interested in showing that they are a superpower and guaranteeing their role in deciding the political future of Syria.”. In spite of that, an agreement was reached that Russian air forces could use the Khmeimim Airbase in Syria in Latakia (the Bassel Al-Assad International Airport), just an hour away by road from their naval base in Tartus.

Everything looked great, until Operation Deterrence of Aggression by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish supported allied forces including the Syrian National Army, formerly Free Syrian Army, launched an offensive on 27 November 2024 against the pro-government Syrian Arab Army in Aleppo, Idlib and Hama regions. The actions culminated on 8 December when Damascus was captured and the regime was toppled. Bashar Al-Assad himself resorted to fleeing to Russia.

Israel wasted to time or opportunity. They launched an offensive over the Golan Heights to resume control of the area. PM Netanyahu, on December 8 announced that The Separation of Forces Agreement from 1974 between Israel and Syria, the agreement keeping the peace in the area between both countries, had collapsed. In essence, he was correct. The agreement was between 2 countries, one had imploded, and the border was open for any additional military group to position itself whenever deemed suitable. This could potentially create additional and unpredictable problems for Israel – a known enemy is preferable than an unknown enemy.

In the following 3 days, 350 fighter jets attacked 320 targets throughout Syria according to unconfirmed reports and various media and social media posts. The targets included fighter jets, helicopters, ships and navy vessels, radars, missile batteries, rockets, weapon production sites and warehouses, Scud missiles, cruise missiles and more. The goal was clear- there was a historic opportunity to cripple for a very long time the ability of the neighboring country to support the terrorist outfits.

This is the first part of the article, the second can be read here.

About the author

Ivaylo Valchev

Ivaylo Valchev

Ivaylo Valchev is a strategic affairs and geopolitics analyst. He holds master’s degrees in economics from the University at Buffalo, The State University of New York, and MBA from Cass Business School, London.

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