Valentino MEGA

Before the Modi-Trump meeting in the White House on February 13, Tulsi Gabbard, newly appointed US Director NIA met Modi at Blair House in Washington DC, as did Elon Musk, CEO of DOGE, and the NSA Michael Waltz. Gabbard accepted Hindu faith as a teenager – wonder if Modi invited her to the Maha Kumbh in Prayagraj? Elon Musk together with his family met Modi – Modi later said both discussed issues, including space, mobility, technology, innovation and ‘Minimum Government, Maximum Governance’. Musk’s Starlink has applied for a license to provide broadband services in India. India is reportedly also courting Musk’s Tesla to set up a car factory, cutting EV import taxes for automakers committing $500m and local production within three years. During the Modi-Waltz discussion, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval were present. Last year, Doval couldn’t accompany Modi to the US because a US judge had issued him summons.

The Modi-Trump bilateral was a business-first affair with focus on increasing cooperation although both praised each other. The issues discussed were covered in the Modi-Trump joint press briefing after their meeting. When asked who was a tougher negotiator between him and Modi, Trump said: "He (Modi) is a much tougher negotiator than me. There is not even a contest." On a question about the US role in the unrest in Bangladesh, Trump denied involvement of America’s deep state and said Modi has been working on it for many years, and I leave it to him

It is well known that USAID and the CIA had a role in the regime change in Bangladesh, and Trump himself has shut sown offices of USAID and is gunning for the Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) racket. However, him leaving the question to Modi can be interpreted in two ways: one, India is free to deal with Bangladesh the way it wants; two, indicting India’s foreign policy towards Bangladesh and for having been caught napping.

The Modi-Trump joint press briefing began with a speech by Trump, who praised the reception given to him at Ahmedabad in his visit to India during his first presidency, Trump made the following points: the US-India defence partnership will become stronger - American defence exports to India will earn billions of dollars, also paving the way for exporting F-35s; QUAD will become stronger in the Indo-Pacific: close cooperation against Islamic terror – US extraditing terrorist (Tahawwur Rana -accused in 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks) for trial in India; India levying 60-70% tariffs on US goods with some USD 100 billion trade balance in India’s favour (actually America currently has a USD 45.7 billion trade deficit with India) – US is for reciprocal tariffs and Modi has agreed to level out bilateral trade; the US will be supplying much more oil-gas to India, probably becoming the number one supplier; enhanced nuclear cooperation and electric generation will lead to affordable electricity to Indians and 10s/100s of billion dollars to America; close cooperation in defence technologies and artificial intelligence (AI); energizing the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC).  

Speaking in Hindi, with his penchant for phrases, Prime Minister Narendra Modi coined another one saying Trump’s motto of MAGA (Make America Great Again) combined with India’s vision of MIGA (Make India Great Again) becomes a MEGA partnership. Other issues covered by Modi included: bilateral trade target set at USD 500 billion by 2023 - push to conclude "mutually beneficial trade agreement" in coming days; strengthen oil-gas trade and investments in energy sector - small  modular reactors; America’s important role in India's defence preparedness - joint development, joint production and transfer of technology; launching Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance in future; establish Defence Cooperation Framework 2025-2035; work jointly in AI, semiconductors, quantum, biotechnology/other technologies; agreed on Transforming Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology (TRUST); close ISRO-NASA cooperation; special role of Quad in Indo-Pacific – 2025 Quad summit in India to also discuss IMEC and I2U2 initiatives; cooperation on cross-border terrorism – US extraditing terrorist Tahawwur Rana to India.

As part of Q&A, Modi was asked two questions: one on illegal immigration and another on the US Department of Justice (DOJ) USD 250 million bribery charges against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani. Modi said that India will take back all illegal Indians and there is a need to curb human trafficking, but did not mention their deportation shackled like animals is not appreciated in India.  Ironically, some 36,000 of the 300,000 children are missing without a trace in India since 2020, as the Supreme Court was informed by the Government on February 14 – prey to child trafficking? On the question about Gautam Adani, Modi said he hadn't discussed the issue with Trump. Trump also took questions about the war in Ukraine and mentioned he knows Chinese President Xi Jinping well.

The Modi-Trump meeting generally was on expected lines (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/articles/the-modi-trump-tete-a-tete/). Faced with the spectre of Trump’s newly announced ‘reciprocal tariffs’, in which he proposes to answer foreign import taxes on US goods with rates equal to what each country imposes, India had reduced tariffs on some 30 items before Modi went to Washington. That is far from what Trump wants but Modi has committed to Trump to address the long-running disparities, which Trump maintained the US is entitled to. Moreover, Trump is expected to push for access to India's government procurement market, supposedly aligned with WTO rules, which will hamper India's ability to prioritise domestic producers, posing a direct challenge to the 'Make in India' initiative – which is certainly bad for India. Also, what will Modi do to keep Musk happy, considering the Trump-Musk equation?

Despite Trump’s unpredictability and hurried nature, does India have breathing space considering that Modi and Trump have committed to negotiating the first phase of a trade agreement by autumn 2025? Some analysts say yes, but wonder if the trade agreement would be an FTA or only levelling trade tariffs? What will matter to Trump is not only how soon Modi will correct the bilateral trade balance, but how soon and in what quantum the US gets access to Indian markets – defence, commercial, you name it. The scope no doubt is tremendous – USD 500 billion bilateral trade by 2030. Will Modi make the US the main supplier of oil and gas to India, especially if Trump imposes heavy tariffs on Russian exports of crude oil to India and other countries? America will certainly make billions of dollars but what price will India pay for American oil-gas and how adversely will it affect the Indian economy?

Then there is the question of exporting F-35 fighter jets to India. Some of the indigenous media is already singing praises of the aircraft including how their acquisition by India will scare Pakistan. Former Air Marshals of the Indian Air Force (IAF) prefer the Russian Su-57 over the F-35 not merely because the Su-57 performed at Aero India 2025. The drawbacks of the F-35 are well known. Besides, each operational flight per hour costs about USD 36,000.  The F-35 fighter program, cumulatively costing over USD 1.7 trillion, is the most expensive military projects the US ever had.

Why is Trump in a hurry to export the F-35s to India. One view is that with the cost-cutting campaign of Elon Musk heading DOGE, this expensive project would unlikely survive. Moreover, has been denouncing fighter jets, saying the wars will be fought by unmanned platforms and space weapons. There are also reports that China is restricting supply of rare earths, special alloy metals, parts/components and sub-assemblies to American civil and military aircraft industries affecting their quality/reliability, and Boeing and Lockheed Martin are slowing down production, including of F-35s. There is a view that Trump is only POTUS for four years and Modi can parry the F-35 deal. But Trump is coming to India for the Quad Summit this year, would want to sign the deal straightaway and fly the first F-35 squadron to India earliest with training of pilots and support arranged here.

Finally, what India needs to do is level out the Indo-US trade deficit at the earliest. But is that all Modi will do? Most disagree, with a former diplomat saying that India is squarely at the receiving end.

Author is an Indian Army veteran. All views are  personal.