South-SE Asian Schmooze

Pakistan’s army chief General Asim Munir, speaking recently at the Overseas Pakistanis Convention in Islamabad, in presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and senior Pakistani ministers, called Kashmir “Pakistan’s jugular vein" and said, “You have to tell Pakistan’s story to your children so that they don’t forget that our forefathers thought we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religions are different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there. We are two nations; we are not one nation.”

India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal responded by saying, “How can anything foreign be in a jugular vein? This (Jammu and Kashmir) is a Union Territory of India. Its only relationship with Pakistan is the vacation of illegally occupied territories by that country.” India has also reminded Pakistan of its role in sheltering the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks.

There is a view that Asim Munir’s outburst is because the US extradited Tahawwur Rana to India – presently in custody of India’s National Investigation Agency (NIA). Tahawwur Rana is a Pakistani-Canadian terrorist, who served in the Pakistan army as a doctor in rank of captain. He is a member of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and is implicated in several high-profile terrorist plots, including the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. Rana is convicted for conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists in Denmark (18 U.S.C. & 2339A) and providing material support to a designated foreign terrorist (18 U.S.C. & 2339B); criminal penalty for which is 14-years imprisonment. 

Asim Munir has many reasons for his frenzied speech, the foremost being covering his a**e (as Trump would say). This is after former Pakistan army chief General Jehangir Karamat publicly berated Asim Munir, signalling Munir’s poor leadership. Other veteran Pakistani Generals, including Ashraf Janjua, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Raheel Sharif, also share Karamat’s view. Such criticism of a serving army chief is the first time in the history of Pakistan. Concurrently, a group of junior officers in the Pakistan army  issued a letter demanding Munir’s resignation, failing which they would “act” ( https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/pakistans-army-chief-faces-ultimatum-resign-or-risk-military-coup-19579927.htm ).

Pakistan army and security forces have been suffering periodic and cumulatively heavy casualties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by fighters of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and associated groups, as well as in Balochistan at the hands of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). The BLA claims to have executed all 214 Pakistani army hostages, captured during the Jaffar Express passenger train incident in March 2025. BLA also says they have always acted as per international law, but the stubbornness of Pakistan forced them to act thus ( https://www.newsonair.gov.in/balochistan-liberation-army-claims-to-have-killed-all-214-pakistani-military-hostages-taken-in-train-hijack-incident/ ). Asim Munir has threatened a crackdown in Balochistan, saying that "even ten generations of terrorists cannot harm Balochistan and Pakistan". This is being compared with the speech of General Yahaya Khan (Pakistani army chief in 1971) who talked of fighting for another 100 years, the night before the Pakistan army surrendered in East Pakistan.

Pakistan’s inability to protect Chinese nationals has forced China to deploy PLA in Pakistan. Asim Munir is safe with the CIA-MI6-ISI nexus and America’s newfound interest in the minerals in Balochistan, where a Canadian firm already has a contract. The US continues with its double-game; FBI exposes the Pakistan ISI-Khalistani terrorists nexus, but Time Magazine includes Bangladesh’s Mohammad Yunus in the 100 most influential people in the word (India’s Narendra Modi is not in the list), Indian passport ranking is down from 82nd position to 140th among 180 nations. In addition, the US has denied admission to 20 thousand Indian students despite confirmed admission in Visa while the Indian rupee remains in free-fall. 

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan is perturbed with Israel bombing his unofficial extended Islamic emirate in Syria, but Erdogan is arming playing godfather to Pakistan, Maldives and Bangladesh, even as Bangladesh’s Mohammad Yunus ( https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/op-eds/bathuas-bilby/ ) seeks drones and drone technology from China. Munir is also buoyed by the re-establishment of strong Pakistan-Bangladesh ties, Pakistan army training Bangladesh army in four army cantonments and foreign secretary level Pakistan-Bangladesh dialogue. Terrorist leaders from both sides are visiting each other’s country, with planning for anti-India activities high on the agenda.  

The US remains uninterested in Baloch independence because of the CIA-ISI nexus. But the US is probably behind the move to ease tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan. A Pakistani delegation that recently visited Kabul has noted for the first time a shift in the attitude of the Taliban towards the TTP. Earlier, an Afghan Taliban delegation, comprising intelligence and security officials, had quietly visited Islamabad to discuss a way forward towards addressing Pakistan's concerns regarding the TTP ( https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/international/afghan-taliban-delegation-quietly-visits-pakistan-to-discuss-ttp-issue-report ).

According to ‘Northeast News’, Bangladesh army is to support America’s proxy war against Myanmar military junta in Myanmar’s Rakhine state; logistics and tactical support, including use of drones, to a coalition of forces, including the Arakan Army (AA) and the Chin National Front (CNF)( https://nenews.in/neighbours/nascent-plan-involving-bangladesh-army-in-clandestine-us-backed-operations-in-rakhine-state-emerges/23592/ ). Earlier reports had talked of no evidence of the AA taking US support. The report says: a logistics support base being established near Teknaf; Cox’s Bazar airport being developed to operate Turkish drones; AA and CNF representatives to meet US officials, and; with Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) chief Ataullah abu Ammar Jununi arrested in Dhaka, Bangladesh army is wanting ARSA to join the coalition against Myanmar’s military junta.

Veracity of the above report is questionable, especially the degree of Dhaka’s support even though the CIA may want this. The repercussions on India and South Asia are obvious, especially with India’s Manipur State remaining unstable and Mizoram having large influx of Chin from Myanmar. But Pakistan’s ISI is involved in both Bangladesh and Myanmar. ARSA is responsible for mass Hindu killings in Myanmar in recent years. ARSA chief Ataullah is a Pakistani national with links to ISI and LeT, who also receives funds from Saudi Arabia.  Ataullah was probably invited to Dhaka, the “arrest” being a cover for providing a safe house.

There has been speculation about a rift between Yunus and Bangladesh army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman; Yunus tried to replace him with a radical Islamist General, which led to few arrests. The recent docking of three Russian warships (corvettes ‘Hero of the Russian Federation Aldar Tsydenzhapov’ and ‘Rezkiy’ and tanker ‘Pechanga’) in Chittagong has raised speculation about the changing dynamics in South Asia. But more concern is being aired about the recent Russia-Pakistan naval exercise, Russia-Pakistan defence and energy ties, and repercussions of India going all out to woo the US.

It was covered in these columns earlier how Union Minister Piyush Goyal has been publicly showing preference for America over China, downplaying the latter ( https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/op-eds/shilly-shally-trump/ ); juvenile utterings of by a minister fearing  Trump could raise tariffs. In a recent dialogue with Elon Musk, Modi said that “India is committed to advancing partnership with the US” ( https://www.wionews.com/world/pm-modi-dials-tesla-boss-elon-musk-amid-tariff-tensions-says-committed-for-advancing-partnership-with-us-8975418 ). One should expect Tesla cars flooding India with India having reduced the duty on electric vehicles to zero, as also Starlink cover in India, even as Piyush Goyal plays the charade of studying Musk’s application for the license.

China has a hold in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar and Nepal. For China, Myanmar is a battleground where Beijing’s regional ambitions, economic interests, and security concerns intersect; a weak Myanmar enables China to establish uncontested regional hegemony notwithstanding American machinations. China says it wants to restore stability in Myanmar but in practice is propping up the military junta, simultaneously making efforts to draw the ethnic armed organizations into its orbit. China’s lethal arming of the United Wa State Army (UWSA).

China is watching these developments and playing it cool, only asking for the Dragon-Elephant to Tango, plus fairness in the two-way trade with India. The India-China bilateral trade is giving a US$100 billion annual advantage to China. This is going to go up substantially, notwithstanding some ministers singing for decoupling with China; to earn brownie points from the Trump administration. India has also committed to use the dollar in bilateral trade with countries.

The heightening US-China economic war is an opportunity for India to redouble efforts for an India-China border settlement, recommend completion by 2030 at the highest political level, which in turn would ease border tensions. China has achieved what it wanted in eastern Ladakh in 2020 and Beijing is in no hurry because its second highway through Aksai Chin (G-695 expressway) will come close to Galwan and Hot Springs only around 2032-2033 for which it may seek more depth in Ladakh, if the border is not mutually settled by then. But our blind men have chosen to bend backwards to the US; refusing to acknowledge that the US wants to use India as a proxy to fight China, the same way it has used Ukraine to fight Russia. China is exploiting the situation in India’s northeast and now has Bangladesh in its bag. Supply of Chinese drones and “considerable” drone technology to Bangladesh would lead to more fireworks. 

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.