The blow hot blow cold stratagem of US President Donald Trump is on full display. Trump withdrew from the environment-related Paris Accord and the Iran Nuclear Deal in his first presidency. But the volatility in his second tenure is limitless; throttling WHO, murdering WTO, wants Canada as 51st state, ownership of Panama Canal and Greenland, American Riviera in Gaza, and the whole world (even Taiwan) to pay America for MAGA.
The Ukraine ceasefire, touted by Trump pre-election and beyond, drags on. Trump wants control of Ukraine’s rare earth materials, nuclear plants and the pipeline feeding Russian oil to Europe through Ukraine. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky knows a ceasefire implies the end of his dictatorship. Trump’s staged Ukraine ceasefire, first in Black Sea and Russia-China not attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, was immediately violated by Zelensky attacking energy structures in Kursk. Trump can force a unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine (which Russia favors) by temporarily suspending the Starlink cover, essential for Ukrainian operations. Not doing so, indicates Trump is under pressure from America’s arms and oil lobbies.
Zelensky is crying about two Chinese and a hundred odd North Korean mercenaries supporting Russian forces, but thousands of Western mercenaries have been assisting Ukraine even before hostilities with Russia began. The US-Germany-Ukraine operations against Russia are exposed in the New York Times ( https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/29/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-wiesbaden.html ). Interestingly, France, Germany and Britain are eager to fuel the war in Ukraine but China’s defense minister has warned that if NATO officially enters the war in Ukraine, China will support Russia.
Trump says his negotiating power has made countries lick his a**e, with more than 75 countries contacting US officials to trade. But Trump seems to have now sensed the turmoil within America. Levying unprecedented tariffs on China and receiving an equal response, Trump backtracked by lifting tariffs on electronic items like laptops and smartphones, and is likely to allow auto parts and vehicles at concessional tariffs; having understood he can’t make America manufacture electronics and auto parts “overnight”.
Trump has paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90-days except for China. US tariffs on China total 145% (including earlier 20%). China has raised tariffs on the US from 84% to 125%. China says America’s trade actions will become a joke in the history of the world economy and if the US insists on continuing to substantially infringe on China’s interests, China will resolutely counter and fight to the end. Chinese President XI Jinping has said, “There are no winners in a tariff war, and going against the world will only result in self-isolation.”
China’s trade surplus hit US$992.2 billion in 2024. In contrast, America imported US$3.29 trillion worth of goods in 2024 despite a US$1.21 trillion trade deficit. Interestingly, China’s economy grew 5.4% in first quarter of 2025 despite the escalating tariffs war. China has stopped export of all rare earth metals to the US. China dominates 90% of these materials; production and near-monopoly in refining. But some sources say the US buys only US$170 million worth of these materials from China, which is 0.03% of its trade with Beijing. Besides, Trump wants control of US$500 billion worth of these metals in Ukraine. Trump is also amenable to Israel “cleansing” Gaza of Palestinians for the oil reserves, where he wants to deploy a US “peace force”.
China has halted LNG imports from the US, leaving tankers in limbo with billions of dollars of contracts. Also, China has threatened to unleash a US$1.9 trillion 'tsunami' on the world in a prolonged tariff war with America; which can cause factory closings and layoffs in the US and elsewhere globally ( https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/trade/exports/insights/the-tsunami-is-coming-chinas-global-exports-are-just-getting-started/articleshow/120082999.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst ). Xi is rallying support to fight back Trump’s tariffs, where many nations are also looking at alternatives. Xi’s ongoing Southeast Asia tour is to strengthen strategic partnerships and supply chains.
Trump is confident of winning the economic war but how much disorder his tariff rampage will cause only time will tell. China has reportedly stored much more than 10,000 tons of gold. For Trump, gold is irrelevant since the US dollar is not linked to the dollar - he is yet to audit Fort Knox gold anyway. Trump appears keen on Bitcoins but this is also prone to cyber fraud. BRICS will not die down despite Trump’s bullying. On the contrary, Trump’s tariff war will accelerate alternatives to the dollar and the SWIFT system.
Way back Ronald Regan analysed that high tariff (considered good in the short-term) invite retaliation, shut down businesses and lead to collapse. Trump’s supporters say, he knows what he is doing. Perhaps he realises what he can achieve with three months already gone, which is why he is talking about many wanting him to run a third time – by amending the American Constitution?
Reagan may be considered vintage, but readers would do well to listen to American economist Richard David Wolff, who talks of collapse of American Global Power and the New World Order; with US under the highest external debt, taking away job security, “kissing ceasefire in Ukraine goodbye because the US cannot afford it any more”, BRICS a much bigger bloc (67% of the world) than the G-7 combined, adverse effect of decoupling with China on American businesses, America’s inability to “control” Russia, China or Europe, and the like.
Singapore, though not under Trump tariffs, says America has changed from liberator to a great disrupter, to a landlord seeking rent, and with the US no longer prepared to under the global order, it makes the international environment far less orderly and predictable. Fareed Zakaria lists out Trump’s demands and points out violation of trade rules; created and championed by America for decades ( https://www.facebook.com/fareedzakaria/videos/879118420928976/?fs=e&mibextid=wwXIfr&rdid=gAdYyeokKFkdzQrZ# ). Zakaria says Trump’s “remarkable” turnarounds are causing foreign policy shifts globally that will result in revolution everywhere: Germany accuses Trump of indifference to Europe; extension of French-British nuclear umbrella to Europe is attracting interest; Taiwan is nervous Trump may make a deal with Xi; countries like Japan, South Korea and others may go nuclear for their security; alternatives to the dollar will be sought, and EU bonds may compete with US bonds – all of which will benefit China and Russia. America’s privileged position will decline creating a more dangerous and impoverished world and a more isolated mistrusted and insecure America.
Is Trump a peace dove? The Ukraine ceasefire in limbo and Trump’s plan to deploy US troops to Ukraine and Gaza, and unconfirmed reports of US troops in Afghanistan (Bagram Air Base) give some indications. There is speculation Trump will not hesitate to strike Iran, using Israel as the front, if he finds his economic war not progressing as per plan. Despite America’s external debt at US$36.22 trillion, a US$1 trillion defense budget raises questions whether Trump seeks war with China? This may or may not be the case, but it appears certain that in addition to more countries going nuclear (as Zakaria perceives), nuclearization of space is on the cards, which is why suddenly America’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment report states that Russia’s satellite launch in February 2022 was possibly for nuclear weaponization in space.
Trump has thrown a bone at India in the form of Tahawwur Rana, which he could have done in his first presidency. India will draw political mileage from this terrorist in the coming years, but will not change Pakistan’s proxy war on India, which is getting accelerated in conjunction with Bangladesh. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been working double time to spread the gospel of peace, but Pakistan’s Imran Khan is nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Indigenous sponsored media is on Cloud 9; only 26% reciprocal tariffs (presently paused) although tariffs on autos and steel plus 10% tariffs across the board continue, and EU, Britain and others lining up for an FTA. But the Indo-US trade pact is yet to be finalized and beyond the euphoria, Trump’s tariff burden on India is estimated at over US$5.76 billon (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indias-exports-to-us-could-face-5-76-billion-decline-in-2025-due-to-tariff-hikes/articleshow/120059905.cms), which together with India’s US$14 billion trade deficit (February 2025), implies a whopping 30% trade deficit.
Our political hierarchy appears mortally scared that Trump may increase tariffs on India. That’s why announcements how much we love the dollar - was such display required? To top this, Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and Industry asks Indian businessmen to choose US goods over Chinese, as possible (https://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/identify-areas-where-us-goods-can-be-chosen-over-china-govt-asks-industry9885713/) and wants Chinese car makers BYD waiting while expediting clearances for Tesla (https://www.livemint.com/auto-news/india-cautious-of-chinese-strategic-investments-blocks-byd-co-while-courting-rival-tesla-auto-news-business-piyush-goyal-11744085792530.html). These are only two examples amid more, but why is Goyal playing the delinquent diplomat while External Minister S Jaishankar dances tango with China?
On the 75th anniversary of establishment of India-China diplomatic relations, Xi messaged President Droupadi Murmu that Beijing and New Delhi should work more closely together; the relationship should take the form of a "Dragon-Elephant tango". China's PLA says it is willing to work with Indian counterparts for a fair solution to the boundary issue. Some utopians interpret these as Beijing appeasing India, which is hardly the case. China is economically, militarily, technologically far superior than India, and is our neighbour. China has a long memory and why should a union minister show preference for the US over China – is it only stupidity?
India is committed to US$500 billion bilateral trade with America by 2030, which Trump may want within his current presidency. Will India ignore better deals with China to appease Trump? What about Trump demanding India imports more defence imports from the US? US Vice President JD Vance visiting India on April 21, followed by the US NSA next month would focus on this, while defence imports from Russia are already down to 24%.
India has taken the decision to jointly produce the American Stryker ICV despite its breakdown in high-altitude trials in Ladakh and the better indigenous Tata ‘Kestral’ which India is already exporting. A new engine for the Stryker is to be first tried out in the US, followed by trials in India (hopefully) and then the joint production, all of which will take considerable time.
In October 2024, India signed a deal with the US for procuring 31 MQ-9B drones from the US-based General Atomics, costing over US$3,5 billion. The delivery of these drones will commence in January 2029 and be completed by October 2030. Ironically, this happened when Yemeni Houthi have already shot down 6 MQ-9B drones including four in the last 14 days and the Indian Navy wants “jet-powered drones” for timely response across the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean.
Ashley J. Tellis, considered an India-US relations expert and the former special assistant to ex-president George W. Bush says the current US administration under President Trump is seeking greater procurement of American weapons systems by India, to replace its dependence on…
— Brig V Mahalingam (@BrigMahalingam) April 13, 2025
Strategic analysts warn when it comes to buying new platforms of strategic value, India should think long-term; America’s reliability of supporting India in times of war, plus willingness to supply spares in critical war situations against Pakistan. Notably, Jeffery Sachs has also warned India not to get played up by Trump. The question that remains is will India’s perceived hierarchical expediency and the urge to consolidate political power alone will guide Indo-US relations?
The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
