Re-emergence of AQIS poses a threat in the Indian subcontinent

Ustad Osama Mahmood has officially been declared as the “emir” of Al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent (AQIS). The As-Sahab Media of Al Qaeda released Mahmood’s message on Eid al-Fitr. This confirmed the instalment of the new leader since the death of Asim Umar in 2019.

Umar also known as Sana-ul-Haq was a Jihadist terrorist. The Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri after announcing the creation of AQIS, declared Asim Umar as its leader in a video posted online in September 2014.

On 9^th October, 2019 the U.S. and Afghan security forces, killed emir Asim Umar in Musa Qila district of Helmand province. Umar was considered to be one of the key leaders of Al Qaeda. Besides him six other senior members of AQIS were also killed in the same operation.

Asim Umar was a veteran jihadist of Indian descent. He was reported to have operated from Afghanistan. Since Al Qaeda and Taliban at the time maintained a symbiotic relation, AQIS also contributed to the Taliban-led insurgency against the former Afghan Ghani government and the U.S. troops. Members of the AQIS coalesced into Afghan Taliban forces and conducted several terrorist operations.

The main objectives of AQIS were to orchestrate terror attacks directly under the banner of Al-Qaeda Central, to suppress the growing influence of the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in Afghanistan, to prepare Muslims for military jihad against their enemies, to liberate Muslim lands which they believed were ruled by non-Muslims, and to revive the Islamic caliphate.

In his 2014, al-Zawahiri pointed out Burma (Myanmar), Bangladesh, and India’s regions of Assam, Gujarat and Kashmir as areas of operations to fight the governments of Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and Bangladesh.

In 2016, Al-Sahad, the AQIS media branch in the Indian Subcontinent, provided a link to the video ‘Al-Hadeed News Report’. The video outlined the renewed goals of AQIS, which highlighted its intent to attack the US, the Pakistani Military Intelligence and Security agencies, the Government of Pakistan, enemies of Islam, blasphemers, atheists and disbelievers.

Given the objectives approved by the central al Qaeda Shura, AQIS had to counter the growing influence of ISK to remain relevant to its parent group and donors.

It is imperative to mention, ISK aimed at using Afghanistan as a launching pad for their outfit while trying to secure a monopoly on Jihad in the Khorasan region. At the time, ISK tried to embed its cadre in local regional disputes and tried to influence the various tribes in jirga. ISK has always viewed the Taliban as its arch-rival and tried to discredit the Taliban amongst the jihadist networks by declaring Taliban’s efforts as a “watered down” jihad. Since, Taliban’s rise to power in Kabul in 2022, ISK ramped its efforts owing to the newly created vacuum upon Taliban’s exit from the war theatre. The ongoing rivalry between the two groups has continued till date. Even though Taliban claims to have obliterated the presence of ISK in Afghanistan, a former core commander of TTP confirmed in The Sunday Guardian that the Pakistani army is assisting the ISIS-Khorasan branch in infiltrating into Afghanistan.

He stated that “ISIS fighters enjoy full support from the Pakistani army” and are considered “militarily supported” by the Pakistani military.

With such developments happening in the region, the instalment of the new emir of the AQIS may spell as an introduction of another key player in what may have been determined as an urgent need for the outfit, especially 6 years since their last emir.

Since the attempted hijacking of a Pakistani Naval Frigate in 2014, AQIS has since failed to compete with ISK, given the tenacity and the frequency of the attacks ISK has conducted in Pakistan and Afghanistan compared to AQIS.

Post Asim Umar’s death, AQIS had few seasoned commanders operating in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region, as most its top tiered leadership perished either by drone strikes (in tribal areas of Pakistan) or were placed under arrest after the commencement of Global War on Terror. Umar was well known in Pakistani jihadist circles since his participation in the Afghan War (1979-89). He was an Indian citizen who migrated to Pakistan to participate in Afghan jihad in the 1980s. Prior to leaving for Pakistan, he studied at the Darul Uloom Deoband seminary in Saharanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India. In the late 1990s, he visited Pakistan.

He later commenced his studies at Jamia Uloom-ul-Islamia in Karachi and the Darul Uloom Haqqania in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. According to various sources he was critical of democracy and strongly supported jihadist ideologies. Being a teacher of Islam, he was compared to the likes of Anwar Awlaki. Awlaki was an American-Yemeni lecturer who was killed in 2011 in Yemen by a U.S. government drone strike ordered by President Barack Obama, after being placed on CIA kill list. US government declared that al-Awlaki had strong connections with al-Qaeda. Infamously known for his radicalised Islamic propaganda, Umar Asim was no doubt compared to Awlaki. As a jihadist propagandist, he was behind video releases for al-Qaeda and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) while authoring four books promoting jihad.

It was reported that Umar had previously met Osama bin Laden and later joined Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HUJI).

By April 2014, Al Qaeda named Umar as the head of its sharia committee in Pakistan and later declared him as the leader of AQIS.

Between 2016 and 2018, the US designated Asim Umar a Specially Designated Global Terrorist in the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List.

On basis of recent reports, AQIS is headed by Osama Mahmoud (variant Usamah Mahmood), who was previously the spokesperson of AQIS and is reported to be a Pakistani national.

The core AQIS leadership is believed to be located in the parts of Afghanistan, and North and South Waziristan, Pakistan. It was reported that majority of AQIS recruits are drawn from Pakistan. In 2020, AQIS was reported to have a cadre between 150 and 200 in the South Asia region. Like ISK’s Voice of Khurasan and previously the Voice of Hind, AQIS uses Nawa-i-Afghan magazine as a mode for recruitment while providing instructions on jihad. Its presence in India was established in 2015 with its aim at radicalising and recruiting Indians. In 2015, leader of AQIS in India, Mohammad Asif was arrested by Indian authorities. It was later revealed that recruits from India were moved to Afghanistan for training in weapons, tactics and religious studies. By 2016, charges were filed against 17 alleged AQIS members in Delhi, India.

AQIS is also associated with Bangladesh-based group Ansar al-Islam Bangladesh (AIB). AIB has conducted killings of secularists and bloggers in Bangladesh between 2014 and 2016, while AQIS has claimed responsibility for each of these attacks.

AQIS: Activities/Propaganda/Recruitment

• 9 November 2021: An AQIS member near Chakwal City, Punjab Province, Pakistan was arrested in possession of large numbers of weapons including rocket-propelled grenades, rocket launchers, firearms, ammunition and ball bearings.
• 19 April 2020: Pakistani security forces arrested four AQIS members in Karachi, Sindh Province, Pakistan. Authorities seized weapons and explosives, which they stated were intended for targeting the Pakistani stock exchange, City Courts, Police Training Centre, or law enforcement agency offices.
• 7 June 2022: AQIS released a statement in English and Urdu calling for attacks against the ‘Saffron terrorists’ (the Indian BJP party), declaring that ‘we shall bind explosives with our bodies and the bodies of our children to blow away the ranks of those who dare to dishonour our Prophet.’
• 18 November 2021: AQIS released a video through its As-Sahab Subcontinent media outlet calling for Indian Muslims to ‘join the jihad in Kashmir’ and ‘actively participate in battles there.’

Like most terror propaganda materials which once known succumbs to being banned by law enforcement authorities in various nations, most of the terror outfits rebrand and rename their magazines for recirculation through certain social media handles, which may be clandestinely shared through private groups by sympathisers or recruits of the outfits. AQIS too, renamed its Urdu language magazine in March 2020 and its propaganda focused became India-centric. AQIS has released messages to cultivate Indian Muslims against the Indian government over several contemporary issues in Indian politics. Some India-centric messages as reported:

• May 2020 : AQIS chief Ustad Mahmood’s message to Muslims urging them to wage the Ghazwa-e-Hind.
• June 2020: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine publishes a letter glorifying a Kashmiri girl who desired to be a fidayeen and kill Indians.
• October 2020: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine announced that battle for Ghazwa-e-Hind has commenced, inviting members from Dhaka, Delhi and Mumbai.
• January 2021: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine publishes a report on jihad and Babri Masjid.
• September 2021: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine issues condolences over Kashmiri separatist leader Geelani’s death and extolls about Kashmir.
• October 2021: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine carried an article urging Indian Muslims to head to jihadi fields to wage jihad against polytheists and Hindus.
• October 2021: AQIS releases a video calling for jihad in Kashmir and Assam.
• November 2021: AQIS releases a documentary on stating that the Indian government is targeting Muslims and calls for jihad against India.
• January 2022: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine issues a statement asking Muslims to be ready for jihad stating ‘Hindus Are Getting Prepared for Muslim Genocide in India.’
• February/March 2022: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine carries image of a girl, Muskan Khan, on its cover, who broke the Hijab ban in Karnataka, India
• April 2022: Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri spoke on Hijab issue and urged Muslims in India to wage jihad and make Hijrah to Assam.
• June 2022: AQIS releases a statement against a Hindu leader in India and urged Muslims to take revenge. It threatened to carry out suicide attacks in Delhi, Mumbai, UP and Gujarat.
• September 2022: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine praised those who opposed blasphemers in India.
• November 2022: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine carries an India centric article.
• Dec 2022: AQIS in Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine publishes picture of Babri Masjid on its cover to highlight the demolition anniversary on December

AQIS Focuses on Assam Outreach

Apart from Jammu and Kashmir, AQIS has focussed on Assam.

In October 2021, the outfit called for Muslims to perform Hijrah to Kashmir and Assam. This was apparent frim Zawahiri’s April 2022 message. Between Oct 2021 and April 2022, Indian intelligence and security agencies caught at least 5 AQIS cells in Assam itself.

Reports of AQIS recruits including some of its Bangladeshi recruits being arrested by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and by Assam police emerged between 2022-2023. These proved the direct affiliation of AQIS with Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) which is also affiliated with Al Qaeda. Given the developments it was evident that AQIS opened a new front in Assam.

The UN releases a report on AQIS

United Nations report warns that al-Qaida has established eight new training camps in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and is increasingly assisting anti-Pakistan outfits to launch cross-border attacks.

The report said an al-Qaida camp in the Afghan border province of Kunar is “conducting suicide bomber training” to aid operations of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan or TTP.

However, the Taliban government has refuted the U.N. findings as “false allegations.”

According to the report, the Taliban’s relationship “remains strong” with senior al-Qaeda leaders, especially with the al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent or AQIS.

Apart from the UN report, there are reports of approximately 350 fighters graduating from the 221 REDACTED  Brigade associated with the Taliban at REDACTED Airbase (https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/reports/aqis-and-lashkar-suicide-bombers-prepping-for-mission-kashmir/ ). 150 graduates were linked to AQIS, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Previously, the reports claimed around 500 fighters who also graduated from the same brigade, among whom approximately 200 were members of the Ilyas Kashmiri group.

Even though AQIS propaganda may appear unsuccessful, it can undoubtedly be ascertained that the outfit plans a long-term strategy of gradually culminating and producing cadres for future under the cover of Taliban’s benevolence. The two-front war on India can be especially worrisome. Its growing influence in Northeast with close proximity to Bangladesh has aided in its sustainability especially since the ousting of the former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina (a new Islamic terrorist outfit reported in Bangladesh https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/reports/new-terror-outfit-launched-in-bangladesh/  and general worsening towards non-muslims https://www.thestrategicperspective.org/articles/bad-vibes-from-bangladesh-and-bhutan/)  Similarly to many outfits linked and affiliated in the jihadi networks, AQIS is expected to derive its strength from its associations and donors in the jihadist circuits.